** WTSR20 WSSS 051800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 060017 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/7/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/06 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3S / 33.7E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/06 12 UTC: 26.0S/33.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/07 00 UTC: 26.9S/32.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/07 12 UTC: 28.0S/32.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/01/08 00 UTC: 29.5S/32.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/08 12 UTC: 31.1S/33.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/09 00 UTC: 32.9S/35.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTRE SEEMS TO HAVE COME BACK OVER SEAS, BUT IT SHOULDEN'T DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 26S ARE LOWER THAN 26AOC, AND THERE IS NO LOWLEVEL INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART. IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS, AND MERGE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 72H. IT GENERATES IMPORTANT STORMY ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.= ** WTNT25 KNHC 060241 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0300Z FRI JAN 06 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 48.7W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 75SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 48.7W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.4W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.9N 49.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.6N 51.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.4N 54.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 56.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.5N 57.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 48.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 060242 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU JAN 05 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN JAN 8 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.6N 51.6W 53 X X X 53 27.0N 56.0W X 15 15 X 30 25.4N 54.0W 7 30 X X 37 BERMUDA X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 060242 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU JAN 05 2006 ...ZETA STILL A TROPICAL STORM...BUT JUST BARELY... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST OR ABOUT 990 MILES...1595 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ZETA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...23.2 N... 48.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 060249 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST JUEVES 5 DE ENERO DE 2006 ...ZETA TODAVIA UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL...PERO A PENAS LO ES... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 48.7 OESTE O COMO A 990 MILLAS...1595 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE A OESTE-NOROESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ZETA SE DEBILITARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...23.2 NORTE... 48.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 060256 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006 HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A 2100 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED MOSTLY 30-KT SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...WITH A SINGLE 35-KT VECTOR THAT MAY BE IN RAIN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...30 KT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. ZETA STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND RAGGED...MAKING FOR A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING SYSTEM. I WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT ONE COULD ALSO MAKE A CASE FOR DOWNGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS AS IF ZETA WILL NEVER DIE...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING CURRENT. INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 305/6...BUT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE LATEST TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL ACCELERATES ZETA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT SHOWS A STRONGER CYCLONE THAN WE ARE EXPECTING BY THAT TIME. IT IS MORE REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT ZETA WILL BE A WEAKENED SYSTEM...PROBABLY A REMNANT LOW...THAT WILL BE STEERED BY SHALLOW-LAYER WINDS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 23.2N 48.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 23.9N 49.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 24.6N 51.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 07/1200Z 25.4N 54.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/0000Z 27.0N 56.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/0000Z 31.5N 57.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 060502 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.01.2006 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 48.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.01.2006 24.1N 48.1W WEAK 12UTC 06.01.2006 24.7N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.01.2006 24.1N 51.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 060502