** WTIO21 FMEE 051807 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 05/01/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 009/07 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 05/01/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 1002 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.5S / 34.7E (VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE-QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250MN DAND LE SECTEUR EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE LE LONG DES COTES AFRICAINES, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25/30 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 06/01/2006 A 06 UTC: 25.8S / 33.9E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 06/01/2006 A 18 UTC: 27.0S / 33.2E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CENTRE EST SUR TERRE, MAIS LE SYSTEME SUIT MAINTENANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-SUD-OUEST, LE LONG DE LA COTE, GENERANT DU VENT ASSEZ FORT SUR LA COTE. IL EST PREVU RESORTIR SUR MER DANS LES TOUTES PROCHAINES HEURES. LES AMAS NUAGEUX ASSOCIES PRINCIPALEMENT PRESENTS SUR MER OCCASIONNENT DE FORTES PRECIPITATIONS, AVEC LOCALEMENT DE FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. . ** WTIO24 FMEE 051807 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 05/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5S / 34.7E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ALONG MOZAMBIQUE COASTS, REACHING LOCALLY 25/30KT IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/06 AT 06 UTC: 25.8S / 33.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/06 AT 18 UTC: 27.0S / 33.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS OVERLAND BUT THE SYSTEM TRACKS NOW SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE COAST AND GENERATE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ONCE MORE OVER SEA IN THE VERY NEXT HOURS. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS, MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA, GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS, WITH STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 051823 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/05 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5S / 34.7E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/06 06 UTC: 25.8S/33.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/06 18 UTC: 27.0S/33.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/01/07 06 UTC: 28.2S/32.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/01/07 18 UTC: 29.6S/32.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/08 06 UTC: 30.7S/33.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/08 18 UTC: 32.0S/35.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: A SMALL CDO PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRE WICH IS OVERLAND AND IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO GO BACK OVER SEA DURING THE VERY NEXT HOURS, WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 26S ARE LOWER THAN 26AOC, AND THERE IS NO LOWLEVEL INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART. IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS; AND THEN MERGE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH. IT GENERATES IMPORTANT STORMY ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.= ** WTNT45 KNHC 052013 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006 ZETA HAS MAINTAINED A NICE TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION... AND ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM THE TAFB HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 30 KT AND 35 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS... AND ODT VALUES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS T3.0/45 KT. LOW-CLOUD DRIFT WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE RUNNING AROUND 40 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT 32-KT SURFACE WINDS... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 05/1613Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1007 MB AND 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/07 KT. ZETA REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG 53W LONGITUDE AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AT 30 KT. ZETA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION "SHOULD" GET SHEARED AWAY BY 24 HOURS OR SO... LEAVING BEHIND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS...OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. JUST ABOUT THE TIME THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO WANE... NEW CONVECTION REFIRES JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME RATHER ACTIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ZETA BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 50W LONGITUDE... INDICATING THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE FOR IT TO TAP INTO. THEREFORE... ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO... AFTER WHICH STRONG SHEAR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH "SHOULD" DECAPITATE THE CYCLONE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 23.0N 48.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 23.8N 49.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 24.7N 50.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 07/0600Z 25.7N 52.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/1800Z 27.0N 55.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 052014 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 2100Z THU JAN 05 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.2W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.2W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 47.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.8N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.7N 50.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.7N 52.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.0N 55.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.0N 56.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 48.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 052014 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU JAN 05 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SUN JAN 8 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.7N 50.5W 55 X X 1 56 27.0N 55.0W X 14 14 X 28 25.7N 52.8W 8 28 1 X 37 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 052018 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU JAN 05 2006 ...TENACIOUS ZETA STILL HANGING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1020 MILES...1640 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.0 N... 48.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 052051 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST JUEVES 5 DE ENERO DE 2006 ...LA TENAZ ZETA AUN PERSISTIENDO COMO TORMENTA TROPICAL SOBRE EL OCEANO ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 48.2 OESTE O COMO A 1020 MILLAS...1640 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...23.0 NORTE... 48.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$