** WTSR20 WSSS 050600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 051211 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/05 AT 1200 UTC : 24.6S / 34.5E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/06 00 UTC: 25.8S/34.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/06 12 UTC: 26.9S/33.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/07 00 UTC: 28.2S/32.1E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/01/07 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS OVERLAND BUT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK TO SEA DURING THE VERY NEXT HOURS WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 25S ARE NO MORE FAVORABLES. THE FORECAST TRACK MAKE IT LAND AGAIN AT MIDDLE RANGE. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA, GENERATE STRONG STORMY ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 051213 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/05 AT 1200 UTC : 24.6S / 34.5E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/06 00 UTC: 25.8S/34.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/06 12 UTC: 26.9S/33.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/07 00 UTC: 28.2S/32.1E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/01/07 12 UTC: 29.3S/30.8E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS OVERLAND BUT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK TO SEA DURING THE VERY NEXT HOURS WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 25S ARE NO MORE FAVORABLES. THE FORECAST TRACK MAKE IT LAND AGAIN AT MIDDLE RANGE. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA, GENERATE STRONG STORMY ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.= ** WTNT45 KNHC 051416 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006 A 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT CAME IN SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED INDICATED SEVERAL 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME... CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE 12Z DVORAK SATELLITE SHEAR PATTERN CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE TAFB WAS 35 KT... AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EVEN CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE THAT ANALYSIS WAS MADE. IN ADDITION... SHIP ZCIH7 LOCATED ABOUT 135 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN EAST WIND OF 30 KT... WHICH MATCHED UP WELL WITH NEARBY QUIKSCAT WINDS. SO...REGRETFULLY...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT AND ZETA IS A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 05/0915Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1006 MB AND 38 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ZETA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE WIND ANALYSES INDICATE A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 56W LONGITUDE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT ZETA POLEWARD AND/OR SHEAR THE SYSTEM APART... LEAVING BEHIND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24-36 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT LOW MAY EVEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SHIPS MODEL'S 850-200 MB SHEAR OF 68 KT IS NOT THE ACTUAL SHEAR AFFECTING ZETA. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 850-300 MB WESTERLY SHEAR TO ONLY BE AROUND 30-35 KT. AS A RESULT... ZETA MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS VERY HOSTILE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 22.4N 47.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 23.3N 48.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 24.3N 49.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 07/0000Z 25.3N 51.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/1200Z 26.3N 53.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 051417 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 1500Z THU JAN 05 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 47.6W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 47.6W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.3N 48.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.3N 49.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.3N 51.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.3N 53.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.0N 56.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 47.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 051417 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU JAN 05 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN JAN 8 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.3N 49.7W 56 X X X 56 26.3N 53.6W X 13 19 X 32 25.3N 51.1W 21 15 X X 36 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 051423 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU JAN 05 2006 ...ZETA STILL HANGING AROUND AND REGAINS TROPICAL STATUS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1045 MILES...1680 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY... A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM... NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 MPH...56 KM/HR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 47.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 051430 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST JUEVES 5 DE ENERO DE 2006 ...ZETA AUN PERSISTIENDO Y VUELVE A ADQUIRIR CATEGORIA TROPICAL... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 47.6 OESTE O COMO A 1045 MILLAS...1680 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE O NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE SE DEBILITE EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. RECIENTEMENTE UN BARCO LOCALIZADO COMO A 155 MILLAS...250 KMILOMETROS AL NORTE DEL CENTRO REPORTO VIENTO MAXIMO SOSTENIDO DE 35 MOH...56 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...22.4 NORTE... 47.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 051431 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST JUEVES 5 DE ENERO DE 2006 ...ZETA AUN PERSISTIENDO Y VUELVE A ADQUIRIR CATEGORIA TROPICAL... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 47.6 OESTE O COMO A 1045 MILLAS...1680 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE O NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE SE DEBILITE EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. RECIENTEMENTE UN BARCO LOCALIZADO COMO A 155 MILLAS...250 KILOMETROS AL NORTE DEL CENTRO REPORTO VIENTO MAXIMO SOSTENIDO DE 35 MPH...56 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...22.4 NORTE... 47.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 051740 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.01.2006 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 49.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.01.2006 21.9N 48.0W WEAK 00UTC 06.01.2006 22.8N 49.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.01.2006 23.6N 50.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.01.2006 23.6N 52.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051740