** WTIN20 DEMS 050620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-01-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL. RIDGE LINE PASSES THROUGH 07 DEGREE NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AT 200 HPA (.) ** WTIO30 FMEE 050633 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/05 AT 0600 UTC : 24.2S / 35.1E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/05 18 UTC: 25.5S/34.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/06 06 UTC: 26.8S/33.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/06 18 UTC: 28.4S/33.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/07 06 UTC: 29.9S/32.2E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/07 18 UTC: 31.8S/32.0E EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/08 06 UTC: 33.6S/33.0E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS OVERLAND BUT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NOW SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK TO SEA DURING THE NEXT HOURS WITHOUT DEEPENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY, WHEREAS ENGLISH MODEL DISSIPATES IT. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA, GENERATE STRONG STORMY ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.= ** WTNT45 KNHC 050830 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006 ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 50 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER ZETA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HR IT IS LOCATED MORE THAN 80 N MI FROM THE EXPOSED CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...ZETA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. ZETA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A MEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 57W-58W NORTH OF 23N MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL CAUSE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW ZETA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...AND NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH 40-60 KT NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY TO IMPACT ZETA AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ZETA TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD CAUSE A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP AS IT APPROACHES ZETA...BUT ANY SUCH FLARE-UP OR RESULTING INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 22.0N 47.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 48.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 24.3N 49.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 06/1800Z 25.4N 50.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/0600Z 26.4N 52.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 56.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 050830 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0900Z THU JAN 05 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 47.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 47.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 46.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 48.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.3N 49.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.4N 50.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.4N 52.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.5N 56.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 050831 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU JAN 05 2006 ...ZETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1075 MILES...1730 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...22.0 N... 47.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 050832 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU JAN 05 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN JAN 8 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.3N 49.3W 57 X X X 57 26.4N 52.5W X 20 6 1 27 25.4N 50.8W 15 20 1 X 36 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTIO21 FMEE 050614 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 05/01/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 007/07 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 05/01/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 1003 HPA POSITION: 24.2S / 35.1E (VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE-CINQ DEGRES UN EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 180 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ESTIME, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE SECTEUR NORD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE LE LONG DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE, ENTRE 22S ET 28S, ET JUSQU'A 40E, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25/30 KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DU CENTRE ESTIME, PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT .. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 05/01/2006 A 18 UTC: 25.5S / 34.6E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 06/01/2006 A 06 UTC: 26.8S / 33.9E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CENTRE EST SUR TERRE, MAIS LE SYSTEME SUIT MAINTENANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD, LE LONG DE LA COTE, GENERANT DU VENT ASSEZ FORT SUR LA COTE. IL EST PREVU RESORTIR SUR MER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. LES AMAS NUAGEUX ASSOCIES PRINCIPALEMENT PRESENTS SUR MER OCCASIONNENT DE FORTES PRECIPITATIONS, AVEC LOCALEMENT DE FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. ** WTIO24 FMEE 041820 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 04/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 35.3E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ALONG MOZAMBIQUE COASTS, BETWEEN 21S AND 26S, AND UP TO 39E, REACHING LOCALLY 25/30KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/05 AT 06 UTC: 22.9S / 34.4E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DEPR. SUR TERRE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/05 AT 18 UTC: 24.0S / 33.5E, DEPR. SE COMBLANT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYTEM HAS MADE A LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHERN VICINITY OF VILANCULOS, LIKELY AROUND 1500Z. IT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND, BUT GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS, WITH STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. ** WTIO30 FMEE 050633 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/05 AT 0600 UTC : 24.2S / 35.1E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/05 18 UTC: 25.5S/34.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/06 06 UTC: 26.8S/33.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/06 18 UTC: 28.4S/33.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/07 06 UTC: 29.9S/32.2E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/07 18 UTC: 31.8S/32.0E EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/08 06 UTC: 33.6S/33.0E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS OVERLAND BUT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NOW SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK TO SEA DURING THE NEXT HOURS WITHOUT DEEPENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY, WHEREAS ENGLISH MODEL DISSIPATES IT. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA, GENERATE STRONG STORMY ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.