** WTSR20 WSSS 041800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 050028 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/05 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0S / 35.0E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/05 12 UTC: 24.0S/34.5E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/06 00 UTC: 25.0S/34.1E FILLING UP. 36H: 2006/01/06 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS OVERLAND BUT THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST. FRENCH AND EUROPEAN MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM BACK TO SEA AROUND 25S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITHOUT DEEPENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY, WHEREAS ENGLISH MODEL DISSIPATES IT. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS GENERATE STRONG STORMY ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.= ** WTNT25 KNHC 050229 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0300Z THU JAN 05 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 46.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 46.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 45.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.4N 47.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 48.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.2N 49.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.2N 51.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.0N 55.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 050230 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED JAN 04 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT JAN 7 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.9N 48.3W 58 X X X 58 26.2N 51.2W X 18 8 X 26 25.2N 49.5W 14 21 X X 35 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 050230 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006 A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER ZETA AT 2127 UTC SHOWED A NUMBER OF 35 KT VECTORS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY SPUN DOWN SOMEWHAT IN THE ENSUING HOURS...I AM SETTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 35 KT TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE. WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO GET THE BEST OF ZETA...AND THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRLY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ZETA IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TOMORROW...AND TO A REMNANT LOW SOON THEREAFTER. THIS REMNANT LOW WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE EVENTUALLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY. AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ZETA OR ITS REMNANT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 21.7N 46.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 22.4N 47.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 23.9N 48.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/1200Z 25.2N 49.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/0000Z 26.2N 51.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0000Z 28.0N 55.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 050230 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED JAN 04 2006 ...ZETA...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1135 MILES...1830 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDSHAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ZETA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 46.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 050239 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 23 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MIERCOLES 4 DE ENERO DE 2006 ...ZETA...APENAS SE MANTIENE COMO TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 46.0 OESTE O COMO A 1135 MILLAS...1830 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE Y NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HA DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES....MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO... SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUE DEBILITANDOSE...Y ES PROBABLE QUE ZETA SE CONVIERTA EN DEPRESION TROPICAL DURANTE EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...185 KILOMETORS MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...21.7 NORTE... 46.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 050447 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.01.2006 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 45.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.01.2006 21.6N 45.2W WEAK 12UTC 05.01.2006 23.7N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.01.2006 25.0N 46.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.01.2006 26.4N 48.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.01.2006 26.7N 49.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050447