** WTIO30 FMEE 041820 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/04 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 35.3E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/05 06 UTC: 22.9S/34.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/05 18 UTC: 24.0S/33.5E FILLING UP. 36H: 2006/01/06 06 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS MADE A LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHERN VICINITY OF VILANCULOS, LIKELY AROUND 1500Z. IT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND, BUT GENERATE STRONG STORMY ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.= ** WTNT35 KNHC 042026 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED JAN 04 2006 ...ZETA ON A WEAKENING TREND...IT IS ABOUT TIME... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1200 MILES...1930 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 45.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 042027 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 2100Z WED JAN 04 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 45.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 45.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 44.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 46.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.0N 50.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N 53.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.0N 55.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 042028 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006 ZETA CONSISTS OF A VERY VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY VANISHING. THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS THAT ZETA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT SEEMS THAT FINALLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER AS A REMNANT LOW FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. NOW THAT ZETA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ZETA SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.7N 45.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 46.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.5N 47.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 25.0N 48.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 26.0N 50.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 53.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 55.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 042028 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED JAN 04 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT JAN 7 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.5N 47.5W 53 X X X 53 26.0N 50.0W 11 18 1 1 31 25.0N 48.5W 36 3 X X 39 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 042041 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MIERCOLES 4 DE ENERO DE 2006 ...ZETA EN TENDENCIA DE DEBILTARSE...YA ERA TIEMPO... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 45.0 OESTE O COMO A 1200 MILLAS...1930 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUE DEBILITANDOSE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETORS MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...21.7 NORTE... 45.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$