** WTSR20 WSSS 040600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 041212 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/7/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/04 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 35.5E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/05 00 UTC: 23.4S/33.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/05 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 THE SYSTEM, WICH IS ACTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF VILANCULOS, HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING LAST HOURS, WITH BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. IT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND, BUT GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS AND SIGNIFICANT STORMY ACTIVITY, WITH STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.= ** WTNT25 KNHC 041431 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 1500Z WED JAN 04 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 44.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 44.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 43.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 44.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 30.0N 54.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 44.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 041431 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES THAT ZETA IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS YESTERDAY BUT STILL HAS A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS CIRCULATION. THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. PULSES OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ZETA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE UNFAVORABLE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. ZETA IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH. AS AN APPROACHING STRONG WINTER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WINTER LOW WILL PASS BY VERY FAST AND WILL NOT INDUCE RECURVATURE. ZETA AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. AS YOU CAN SEE...I RAN OUT THINGS TO SAY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 21.9N 44.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 22.0N 44.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 46.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 24.5N 47.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 48.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 28.0N 51.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 30.0N 54.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 041431 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED JAN 04 2006 ...ZETA A LITTLE WEAKER... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1265 MILES...2035 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...21.9 N... 44.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 041432 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED JAN 04 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT JAN 7 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.0N 46.0W 57 X X X 57 26.0N 48.0W 12 17 1 X 30 24.5N 47.0W 37 2 X X 39 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 041440 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MIERCOLES 4 DE ENERO DE 2006 ...ZETA UN POCO MAS DEBIL... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 44.0 OESTE O COMO A 1265 MILLAS...2035 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE LUEGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETORS MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...21.9 NORTE... 44.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 041647 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.01.2006 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 43.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.01.2006 21.8N 43.1W WEAK 00UTC 05.01.2006 21.5N 45.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.01.2006 23.4N 45.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.01.2006 25.3N 46.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.01.2006 26.3N 47.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.01.2006 26.0N 49.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.01.2006 26.4N 53.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041647