** WTIO30 FMEE 040604 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/7/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/04 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 36.3E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/04 18 UTC: 23.2S/34.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/05 06 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, WHITHOUT POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE ITS LANDFALL, BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORMY ACTIVITY OVER SEA, WHICH BEGIN TO FALL OVER LAND. THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM, BADLY DEFINED, IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CITY OF INHAMBANE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CAN CAUSE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A 300 KM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 040615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-01-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL. RIDGE LINE PASSES THROUGH 06 DEGREE NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AT 200 HPA (.) ** WTNT25 KNHC 040833 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0900Z WED JAN 04 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 43.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 43.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 42.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.9N 43.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.4N 45.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.9N 46.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.5N 46.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 30.0N 53.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 43.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 040833 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006 ZETA CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -55C TO -60C NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER....WITH RAGGED OUTER BANDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW WAS APPARENT IN CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 65 KT AT TAFB TO 45 KT AT AFWA AND ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. ZETA HAS MOVED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND FASTER OVER THE PAST 6-12 HR...LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 21N38W. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW IMAGES SUGGEST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 220/6. ZETA IS SOUTH OF A MEAN DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHILE A MEAN DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...WHILE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF ZETA... WITH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDING IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH CALLS FOR RECURVATURE ALONG 48W IN 48-72 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. ZETA IS WELL EMBEDDED IN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAMS...WHICH OVERALL IS NOT A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE FEATURES WILL PASS OVER ZETA DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...MOST NOTABLY THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD REACH THE STORM IN ABOUT 36 HR. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SURGES AND LULLS IN VERTICAL SHEAR... AND BASED ON THIS THE INTENSITY FORCAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING FOR 48 HR. AFTER THAT...A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF ZETA SHOULD CAUSE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE STORM...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ZETA WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HR AND DISSIPATING BY 120 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL STILL WANTS TO MAKE ZETA A HURRICANE...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRIEFLY PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 22.1N 43.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 21.9N 43.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 22.4N 45.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 23.9N 46.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 25.5N 46.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 49.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 30.0N 53.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 040834 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED JAN 04 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SAT JAN 7 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.4N 45.2W 54 X X X 54 25.5N 46.9W 12 14 2 1 29 23.9N 46.3W 36 2 X X 38 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 040834 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED JAN 04 2006 ...ZETA MOVES A BIT SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAINTAINS INTENSITY... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1325 MILES...2130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...22.1 N... 43.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$