** WTSR20 WSSS 031800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 040018 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/7/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/04 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 37.2E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/04 12 UTC: 23.4S/35.6E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2006/01/05 00 UTC: 24.4S/34.5E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING AND DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE WITHIN 12 TO 15 HOURS IN THE VICINIT Y OF THE CITY OF INHAMBANE. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CAN LOCALLY CAUSE STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A 300 KM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.= ** WTNT35 KNHC 040230 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE JAN 03 2006 ...TENACIOUS ZETA REFUSES TO WEAKEN... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1355 MILES...2180 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.7 N... 42.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 040230 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0300Z WED JAN 04 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 42.7W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 130SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 42.7W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 42.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N 43.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.7N 44.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 30.5N 51.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 42.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 040231 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE JAN 03 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI JAN 6 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.7N 44.5W 59 X X X 59 25.5N 46.5W 16 13 1 1 31 24.0N 46.0W 38 1 1 X 40 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 040231 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006 ZETA IS A TENACIOUS CYCLONE AND BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THE WINDS ARE AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE AND CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR. THE GFDL INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHARP TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF TROUGH INTERACTION AIDING INTENSIFICATION. I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFDL SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. IT HAS ALREADY BEAT ME A FEW TIMES. HOWEVER...FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY ONLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS ZETA WITH 55 OR 50 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A WEAKENING THEREAFTER. ZETA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 250 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR SO AND THEN A NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN AS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF ZETA. AS THE TROUGH GOES BY...ZETA COULD TURN BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.7N 42.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 22.7N 43.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 22.7N 44.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 46.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 25.5N 46.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 28.5N 48.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 30.5N 51.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTIO30 FMEE 040018 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/7/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/04 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 37.2E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/04 12 UTC: 23.4S/35.6E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2006/01/05 00 UTC: 24.4S/34.5E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING AND DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE WITHIN 12 TO 15 HOURS IN THE VICINIT Y OF THE CITY OF INHAMBANE. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CAN LOCALLY CAUSE STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A 300 KM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ** WTIO21 FMEE 040018 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 04/01/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 002/07 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 04/01/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: ZONE PERTURBEE 7 1004 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.1S / 37.2E (VINGT-DEUX DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE-SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN, S'ETANDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 200 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25/30 KT DANS LES QUADRANTS SUD ET EST PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 04/01/2006 A 12 UTC: 23.4S / 35.6E, VENT MAX = 25 KT. A 24H POUR LE 05/01/2006 A 00 UTC: 24.4S / 34.5E, DEPR. SUR TERRE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CETTE ZONE PERTURBEE RESTE PEU ORGANISE, MAIS ELLE EST ASSOCIEE A UNE FORTE ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST ET ATERRIR DANS LES ENVIRONS DE LA VILLE DE INHAMBANE D 'ICI 12 A 15 HEURES. CETTE ZONE PERTURBEE POURRA OCCASIONNER LOCALEMENT DE FORTES RA FALES SOUS GRAINS AINSI QUE DE FORTES PRECIPITATIONS DANS UN RAYON DE 300 KM AUTOUR DU CENTRE. ** WTIO24 FMEE 040018 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 04/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 37.2E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP LOCALLY TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/04 AT 12 UTC: 23.4S / 35.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/01/05 AT 00 UTC: 24.4S / 34.5E, DEPR. SUR TERRE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORMY ACTIVITY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CITY OF INHAMBANE WITHIN 12 TO 15 HOURS. THIS AREA OF DISTU RBED WEATHER CAN CAUSE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A 300 KM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ** WTNT80 EGRR 040542 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.01.2006 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 42.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.01.2006 22.7N 42.5W WEAK 12UTC 04.01.2006 22.9N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.01.2006 24.0N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.01.2006 26.2N 47.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.01.2006 30.1N 46.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.01.2006 31.5N 45.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.01.2006 33.1N 44.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.01.2006 33.1N 45.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040542