** WTIO30 FMEE 031819 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/7/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2S / 37.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/04 06 UTC: 22.5S/36.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2006/01/04 18 UTC: 23.7S/35.0E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING AND DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE VICI NITY OF THE CITY OF INHAMBANE. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CAN CAUSE STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A 300 KM TO 500 KM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 031819 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/7/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2S / 37.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/04 06 UTC: 22.5S/36.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2006/01/04 18 UTC: 23.7S/35.0E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING AND DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE VICI NITY OF THE CITY OF INHAMBANE. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CAN CAUSE STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A 300 KM TO 500 KM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 031817 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/01/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 001/07 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 03/01/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: ZONE PERTURBEE 7 1004 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2S / 37.8E (VINGT ET UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE-SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN, S'ETANDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LES SECTEURS NORD ET EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25/30 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 04/01/2006 A 06 UTC: 22.5S / 36.5E, VENT MAX = 25 KT. A 24H POUR LE 04/01/2006 A 18 UTC: 23.7S / 35.0E, DEPR. SUR TERRE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CETTE ZONE PERTURBEE RESTE PEU ORGANISE, MAIS ELLE EST ASSOCIEE A UNE FORTE ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST ET ATERRIR DANS LES ENVIRONS DE LA VILLE DE INHAMBANE DANS ENVIRONS 24 HEURES. ** WTIO24 FMEE 031817 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 03/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2S / 37.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP LOCALLY TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/04 AT 06 UTC: 22.5S / 36.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/01/04 AT 18 UTC: 23.7S / 35.0E, DEPR. SUR TERRE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORMY ACTIVITY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CITY OF INHAMBANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. ** WTIO30 FMEE 031835 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/7/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2S / 37.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/04 06 UTC: 22.5S/36.5E, MAX WIND=025KT . 24H: 2006/01/04 18 UTC: 23.7S/35.0E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING AND DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE VICI NITY OF THE CITY OF INHAMBANE. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CAN CAUSE STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A 300 KM TO 500 KM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.= ** WTNT25 KNHC 032034 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 2100Z TUE JAN 03 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 42.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 42.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 42.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.2N 43.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.4N 44.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.2N 45.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.3N 46.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 29.5N 48.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 032034 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006 BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...ZETA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED-LOOKING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRACTICALLY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE STORM AT THIS TIME. THIS TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE SYSTEM IN 12-24 HOURS. SO...ALTHOUGH YOU'VE HEARD THIS FROM US BEFORE...WE EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE TOMORROW. INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD...270/4. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ZETA SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IF ZETA WEAKENS FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE...IT WOULD PROBABLY FOLLOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN 3-4 DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 23.2N 42.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 23.2N 43.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.4N 44.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 24.2N 45.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 25.3N 46.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 28.0N 47.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 29.5N 48.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 032036 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE JAN 03 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST FRI JAN 6 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.4N 44.4W 60 X X X 60 25.3N 46.5W 23 9 X 1 33 24.2N 45.6W 41 1 X X 42 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 032036 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE JAN 03 2006 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1380 MILES...2220 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.2 N... 42.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 032106 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MARTES 3 DE ENERO DE 2006 A LAS 5 AM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 42.4 OESTE O COMO A 1380 MILLAS...2220 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 100 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES.NO SE ESPERAN CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETORS DE SU CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MILIBARAS...29.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...23.2 NORTE...42.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. ** WTCA45 TJSJ 032107 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MARTES 3 DE ENERO DE 2006 A LAS 5 AM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 42.4 OESTE O COMO A 1380 MILLAS...2220 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH... 100 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES.NO SE ESPERAN CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETORS DE SU CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MILIBARAS...29.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...23.2 NORTE...42.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.