** WTSR20 WSSS 030600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT35 KNHC 031429 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE JAN 03 2006 ..ZETA MAINTAINING STRENGTH... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1395 MILES...2250 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...23.0 N... 42.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 031430 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE JAN 03 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST FRI JAN 6 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.0N 43.8W 57 X X X 57 24.5N 45.5W 34 1 X 1 36 23.4N 44.8W 46 X X X 46 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 031430 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 1500Z TUE JAN 03 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 42.1W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 42.1W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 41.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.0N 42.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 43.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.4N 44.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 27.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.0N 46.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 031435 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006 ZETA'S CENTER APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5... CORRESPONDING TO A 55-KT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. AN SSMIS IMAGE AT 1116Z DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE RING...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE APPEARED TO BE AT MID-LEVELS AND DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND SO FAR THE STRONG WINDS IN THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT HAVE NOT HAD MUCH OF A DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARING ZETA...IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SPLIT AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING TODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW NO WEAKENING UNTIL A LITTLE LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAKING THEIR TOLL ON ZETA. EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER LOCATION IS NOT THAT OBVIOUS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 250/4. A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER A LARGE LOW MOVING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO TURN ZETA TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 23.0N 42.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 23.0N 42.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 43.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 23.4N 44.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 24.5N 45.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 27.5N 46.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 30.0N 46.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 031659 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.01.2006 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 41.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.01.2006 22.8N 41.2W WEAK 00UTC 04.01.2006 24.3N 42.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.01.2006 24.2N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.01.2006 24.1N 46.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.01.2006 26.7N 48.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.01.2006 27.5N 48.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.01.2006 28.5N 48.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.01.2006 29.5N 49.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.01.2006 30.6N 51.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031659