** WTIN20 DEMS 030700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-01-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL . RIDGE LINE PASSES THROUGH 10.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AT 200 HPA (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTNT45 KNHC 030833 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006 AT THE CIRRUS LEVEL...ZETA IS NOW EXHIBITING OUTFLOW IN EVERY QUADRANT WHILE IT MAINTAINS CONVECTION WITH TOPS NEAR -70C. HOWEVER...THE CENTER IS STILL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTS THE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.5...OR 55 KT...AND AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2039Z LAST EVENING SUPPORTED WINDS THIS STRONG AS WELL. CONSEQUENTLY THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING ZETA FROM THE WEST...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THIS TROUGH TO SPLIT AND DROP SOUTH OF ZETA. IF THIS OCCURS...THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER ZETA COULD LESSEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND THE GFDL'S FORECAST OF A HURRICANE DOESN'T LOOK SO UNREASONABLE ANY MORE. NO KNOWN HURRICANE HAS EVER FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY. I WON'T GO THAT FAR WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH I EXPECT THE SHEAR TO INCREASE AGAIN...AND EVEN THE GFDL WEAKENS ZETA SUBSTANTIALLY BY DAY 4. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/2. ZETA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAK MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ZETA MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LARGE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AND HENCE MAY LEAVE ZETA...OR ITS REMNANTS...BEHIND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 23.3N 41.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 23.3N 41.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 23.3N 42.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 43.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 44.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 27.0N 45.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 27.5N 45.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 030833 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0900Z TUE JAN 03 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 41.3W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 41.3W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 41.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.3N 41.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.3N 42.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.5N 43.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.3N 44.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 27.5N 45.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 41.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 030833 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE JAN 03 2006 ...ZETA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1450 MILES...2335 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH ... 4 KM/HR. A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS HOSTILE OVERNIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF ZETA IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...23.3 N... 41.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 030834 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE JAN 03 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST FRI JAN 6 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.3N 42.9W 55 X X X 55 24.3N 44.8W 34 2 X 1 37 23.5N 43.9W 43 X X X 43 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$