** WTNT35 KNHC 030230 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON JAN 02 2006 ...ZETA STRENGTHENED AGAINST ALL ODDS AND FORECASTS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1460 MILES...2350 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...23.5 N... 41.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 030232 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006 ZETA IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. IT APPEARS THAT EVERY PULSE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS TRIED TO APPROACH ZETA BECOMES DIVERTED AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME SHEARED. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST SSMI IMAGE SHOW A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL...BUT NOT QUITE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS AND I COULD GO EVEN HIGHER IF THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IS USED. A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT ZETA ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE HURRICANE. I WAS TEMPTED TO FOLLOW THE GFDL TREND BUT I HESITATED SINCE I AM NOT READY FOR SUCH AGGRESSIVE FORECAST YET GIVEN THE APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST BY EVERY OTHER MODEL. ALL I AM DOING IN THE OFFICIAL FOREAST IS PROLONGING THE LIFE OF A GRADUALLY WEAKENING ZETA...BASED ON CONTINUITY. ZETA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE OR DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH ZETA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 23.5N 41.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 23.4N 41.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 23.3N 42.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 23.5N 45.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 25.0N 46.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 030232 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0300Z TUE JAN 03 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 41.2W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 41.2W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 41.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.4N 41.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.3N 42.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.0N 46.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 41.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 030233 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON JAN 02 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST THU JAN 5 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.3N 42.7W 61 X X X 61 23.5N 45.0W 25 6 1 X 32 23.2N 43.8W 39 1 X X 40 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 030458 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.01.2006 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 41.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.01.2006 23.2N 41.2W WEAK 12UTC 03.01.2006 22.9N 42.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.01.2006 26.6N 43.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.01.2006 22.7N 45.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.01.2006 22.8N 47.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.01.2006 24.6N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.01.2006 26.4N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.01.2006 29.1N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.01.2006 30.1N 48.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030458