** WTNT35 KNHC 022029 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON JAN 02 2006 ...ZETA MAINTAINING STRENGTH AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1465 MILES...2360 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ZETA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.5 N... 41.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 022029 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 2100Z MON JAN 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 41.1W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 41.1W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 40.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.1N 42.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.0N 43.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.0N 44.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.0N 45.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 41.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 022029 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON JAN 02 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST THU JAN 5 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.0N 43.1W 54 X X X 54 23.0N 45.5W 21 8 1 X 30 23.0N 44.3W 38 X X X 38 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 022031 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006 ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND SEEMED IMMINENT EARLIER TODAY...AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER STARTED TO BECOME EXPOSED...A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER. ZETA HAS THUS FAR REFUSED TO WEAKEN IN...WHAT APPEARS TO BE...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS ZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC. NOTWITHSTANDING... GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM WITHIN 1-2 DAYS AND IT IS HARD TO CONCEIVE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG IN SUCH A HOSTILE DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE FORECAST OF WEAKENING. OF COURSE...ZETA MAY HAVE OTHER IDEAS. VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE A MOTION NEAR 250/6. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IT SHOULD BE STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AND MOVE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND SHALLOW BAM SOLUTIONS. THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 23.5N 41.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.1N 42.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 43.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 23.0N 44.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 04/1800Z 23.0N 45.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$