** WTNT45 KNHC 021429 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ZETA'S CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. IT IS ASSUMED THAT HIGHER SPEEDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS ADDITIONAL BLAST OF WESTERLIES SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT ZETA WILL BE DISSIPATING WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS. VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MOVED A LITTLE MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND CURRENT MOTION IS AROUND 240/7. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LATEST...06Z...GFDL RUN IS BACK TO STRENGTHENING ZETA INTO A HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 23.6N 40.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 23.3N 41.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 23.0N 42.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 23.0N 43.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 45.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 021430 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON JAN 02 2006 ...ZETA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL AWAY FROM LAND...SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 40.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ZETA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...260 KM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...23.6 N... 40.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 021430 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 1500Z MON JAN 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 40.7W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 30SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 40.7W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 40.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.3N 41.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 30SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.0N 43.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 40.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 021430 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON JAN 02 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU JAN 5 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.0N 42.5W 51 X X X 51 23.0N 45.0W 23 7 1 X 31 23.0N 43.8W 39 X X X 39 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 021700 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.01.2006 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 39.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.01.2006 23.5N 39.8W WEAK 00UTC 03.01.2006 24.3N 40.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.01.2006 24.6N 41.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.01.2006 25.2N 42.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.01.2006 23.6N 43.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 021700