** WTNT80 EGRR 020606 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.01.2006 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 38.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.01.2006 24.4N 38.4W WEAK 12UTC 02.01.2006 24.6N 39.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.01.2006 24.7N 40.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.01.2006 25.0N 41.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.01.2006 24.0N 41.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020606 ** WTIN20 DEMS 020700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-01-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL . RIDGE LINE PASSES THROUGH 10.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION AT 200 HPA(.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTNT45 KNHC 020830 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006 ZETA IS HOLDING ITS OWN IN THE FACE OF MODERATE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -60C HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST QUIKSCAT AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A TAFB SHEAR INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF T3.0/45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT ZETA MAY HAVE MADE A MORE WESTWARD TURN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND SURGE AS NOTED IN QUIKSCAT AND INFRARED SATELLITE DATA. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS... STEERING ZETA WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYS1S PRODUCTS INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... WHILE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN THE 200 MB TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT DEEP CONVECTION MAY REMAIN INTACT A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING. HOWEVER... BY 24-36 HOURS... ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SHEAR AWAY MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION... AND FINALLY BRING THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO A MERCIFUL ENDING. EVEN THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 24.5N 39.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 24.4N 40.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 24.3N 41.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 24.2N 42.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 24.2N 44.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 020831 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0900Z MON JAN 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 39.7W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 30SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 39.7W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 39.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.4N 40.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 30SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.3N 41.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.2N 42.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.2N 44.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 39.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 020831 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON JAN 02 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU JAN 5 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.3N 41.5W 59 X X X 59 24.2N 44.6W 10 15 2 X 27 24.2N 42.8W 37 1 X X 38 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 020836 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON JAN 02 2006 ...ZETA NOW MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...REMAINS A THREAT ONLY TO SHIPPING INTERESTS... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 39.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1565 MILES...2520 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...260 KM... MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...24.5 N... 39.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$