** WTNT35 KNHC 020235 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JAN 01 2006 ...ZETA MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...FORECAST INSISTS ON WEAKENING... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1145 MILES...1845 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...260 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...24.7 N... 38.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 020235 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006 THIS IS LIKE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON ALL OVER AGAIN. MOST OF THE CONVENTIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ZETA SHOULD HAVE BEEN DISSIPATED BY NOW...WELL IT IS NOT INDEED...AND ZETA IS PRETTY MUCH ALIVE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES STILL INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ORGANIZED WITH AN ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AND AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT ZETA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS GIVEN IN THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES ZETA BY 48 HOURS...THE COOLER THAN NORMAL 200 MB TEMPERATURE IS THE ONLY PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IT IS HARD TO GO AGAINST IT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT AND DRY AIR HEADING FOR ZETA...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING AGAIN AND AGAIN. ZETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN CIRCULATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE TRADE WINDS UNTIL DISSIPATION. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS INDICATED BY QUIKSCAT. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 24.7N 38.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 24.6N 39.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 40.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 24.0N 41.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 24.0N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 020235 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0300Z MON JAN 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 38.7W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 38.7W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.6N 39.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.0N 41.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N 43.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 38.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 020236 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JAN 01 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST WED JAN 4 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.0N 40.0W 47 X X X 47 24.0N 43.0W 14 13 2 X 29 24.0N 41.5W 37 1 X X 38 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 020303 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT DOMINGO 1 DE ENERO DE 2006 ...ZETA MANTENIENDO SU FORTALEZA...EL PRONOSTICO INSISTE EN DEBILITAMIENTO... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 38.7 OESTE O COMO A 1145 MILLAS...1845 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KILOMETORS DE SU CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...24.7 NORTE...38.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...SUROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.