** WTNT25 KNHC 012027 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 2100Z SUN JAN 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 38.2W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 38.2W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 38.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.7N 39.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.5N 40.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.4N 41.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.4N 42.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 38.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 012028 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN JAN 01 2006 ...ZETA MEANDERING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1115 MILES...1790 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ZETA HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ZETA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...25.0 N... 38.2 W. MOVEMENT ...MEANDERING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 012029 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN JAN 01 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST WED JAN 4 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.5N 40.3W 54 X X X 54 24.4N 42.4W 27 4 1 X 32 24.4N 41.4W 40 X X X 40 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 012032 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...ZETA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY HAVE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RELAXED SLIGHTLY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS... CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 45 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SOON AND THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS OUTPUT...SHOWS VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50 KT ON ZETA WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY AN EXAGGERATION CAUSED BY AVERAGING OVER TOO LARGE OF A HORIZONTAL AREA AROUND THE STORM AND...POSSIBLY...TOO DEEP OF A VERTICAL LAYER. THE SHIPS MODEL CALCULATES THE SHEAR FROM THE 850 TO THE 200 MB LEVEL. PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SHOW THAT ZETA HAS A RATHER SHALLOW WARM CORE SO IT MAY NOT HAVE AS DEEP A VERTICAL EXTENT AS MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES...AND IT MAY NOT BE AS RESPONSIVE TO SHEAR PRODUCED BY UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC...I.E. NEAR 200 MB...WINDS AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS RAPIDLY AS SHIPS. ZETA HAS BEEN MEANDERING IN A PARTIAL COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP TODAY...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROADER-SCALE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE STORM WEAKENS AS FORECAST...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND MORE TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK AND NARROW LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE GOES ALONG WITH THAT IDEA...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 25.0N 38.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 24.7N 39.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.5N 40.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 24.4N 41.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 24.4N 42.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$