** WTSR20 WSSS 010600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT75 KNHC 011432 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN JAN 01 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED JAN 4 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.8N 40.4W 59 X X X 59 25.0N 42.5W 29 4 X X 33 24.9N 41.5W 41 X 1 X 42 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 011432 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 1500Z SUN JAN 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 38.6W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 38.6W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.9N 39.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.8N 40.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.9N 41.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.0N 42.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 38.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 011432 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN JAN 01 2006 ...ZETA DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1115 MILES...1795 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ZETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.2 N... 38.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 011433 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2006 WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT ZETA...BUT THIS SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE STORM. IN FACT...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION REMAINS QUITE VIGOROUS...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN... REMAIN AT 45 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONGER WINDS TO ITS NORTH AND SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 45 KT OF SHEAR OVER ZETA...THIS IS LIKELY AN OVERESTIMATE RESULTING FROM AVERAGING THE FLOW OVER TOO LARGE OF A HORIZONTAL AREA SURROUNDING THE STORM. NONETHELESS THE GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE SHEAR ON ZETA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE THAN GIVEN BY SHIPS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL INTENSIFIES ZETA INTO A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. SUCH A SCENARIO IS BEING REJECTED AT THIS TIME...SINCE THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A POSITIVE INTENSITY BIAS FOR SYSTEMS IN SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...240/2. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE COMPETING FOR THE STEERING OF ZETA. AS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS IN ANY DIRECTION. A WEAK AND NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ZETA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MY OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 25.2N 38.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 24.9N 39.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.8N 40.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 24.9N 41.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 42.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 011705 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.01.2006 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED AT POSITION: 25.2N 38.7W IDENTFIER: AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.01.2006 25.2N 38.7W MODERATE 00UTC 02.01.2006 24.8N 39.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.01.2006 24.6N 41.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.01.2006 24.5N 41.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.01.2006 24.5N 42.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011705