** WTSR20 WSSS 311800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT25 KNHC 010245 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0300Z SUN JAN 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 38.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 60SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 38.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 38.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.4N 40.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.4N 40.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.6N 41.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 38.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 010245 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT DEC 31 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE JAN 3 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.4N 40.0W 57 X X X 57 25.6N 41.9W 30 3 1 X 34 25.4N 40.9W 41 1 X X 42 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 010251 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT DEC 31 2005 ...ZETA BARELY MOVING AND STILL PRODUCING 50 MPH WINDS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1080 MILES...1740 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ZETA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES... 220 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...25.6 N... 38.3 W. MOVEMENT...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 010255 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2005 ZETA APPEARED ON THE VERGE OF LOSING ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION A FEW HOURS AGO... BUT SINCE ABOUT 21Z THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE AGAIN. HOWEVER... THAT CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.5 AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 TO 55 KT. THE AMSU AND QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES THIS AFTERNOON BOTH MISSED MOST OF THE CIRCULATION... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS UPON WHICH TO CHANGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WHICH REMAINS 45 KT. ZETA IS STILL BARELY MOVING... BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR REASONING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS ON TO A TROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS... LONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST. THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER ZETA ARE NOT FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO GET MUCH STRONGER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO IT IS POSSIBLE ZETA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM LONGER THAN FORECAST... BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH IT STRUGGLED AGAINST THE SHEAR EARLIER TODAY IT COULD ALSO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION FOR GOOD AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD... PRESUMING THAT SOME CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO RETARD THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLIES AROUND THE NARROW AND WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ZETA. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS MIGHT BE PULLED NORTHWARD BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE ATLANTIC. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 25.6N 38.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 25.4N 40.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 25.4N 40.9W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 25.6N 41.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 010509 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.01.2006 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED AT POSITION: 25.8N 38.0W IDENTFIER: AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.01.2006 25.8N 38.0W MODERATE 12UTC 01.01.2006 25.0N 39.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.01.2006 24.9N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.01.2006 25.6N 40.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.01.2006 25.5N 41.4W WEA WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010509 ** WTIN20 DEMS 010550 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 01-01-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL(.) RIDGE LINE PASSES THROUGH 09 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION AT 200 HPA (.)