** WTNT45 KNHC 312030 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2005 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ZETA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING DURING THE DAY...WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. T NUMBERS WERE DOWN FROM ALL AGENCIES AT 18Z...AT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 45 KT ON THIS BASIS. WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL ZETA DISSIPATES OR IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST. ZETA REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH OF WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. COUNTERING THIS SLOW WESTWARD STEERING IS THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...WITH THE RESULT THAT ZETA HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER SHOULD RESUME IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THAT POINT THE REMNANTS OF EPSILON WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 25.7N 38.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 25.7N 38.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.7N 39.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 25.7N 40.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.0N 41.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 312030 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 2100Z SAT DEC 31 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 38.1W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 30SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 38.1W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 38.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.7N 38.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.7N 39.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.7N 40.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.0N 41.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 38.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 312031 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT DEC 31 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE JAN 3 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.7N 39.7W 44 X X X 44 26.0N 41.5W 17 3 1 X 21 25.7N 40.7W 26 1 1 X 28 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 312031 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT DEC 31 2005 ...ZETA STALLS AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1070 MILES...1720 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ZETA HAS BEEN MEANDERING THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOTION. A SLOW AND ERRATIC WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...25.7 N... 38.1 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$