** WTSR20 WSSS 310600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT45 KNHC 311430 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2005 ZETA CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT WESTERLY SHEAR IS RESTRICTING THIS CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT THE CENTER COULD BECOME EXPOSED AT ANY TIME. OVERALL THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT DID AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WHEN AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS BRIEFLY PRESENT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO ESTIMATES. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER BUT WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO INDICATE THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE CONTRACTED. A SEQUENCE OF OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP WCBP...WHICH PASSED WITHIN 40 NMI OF THE CENTER BUT NEVER REPORTED WINDS HIGHER THAN 34 KT... ALSO SUGGEST THAT ZETA PRESENTLY HAS A FAIRLY SMALL WIND FIELD. ZETA HAS FOUND A RELATIVELY SOFT SPOT BETWEEN STRONG SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT STRONGER WESTERLIES LIE AHEAD AND THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO POUND AWAY AT ZETA. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/4...WHICH IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IN FACT THE CENTER COULD BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. WEAK RIDGING IS PRESENT IN THE LOWER- TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF ZETA...AND THIS STEERING SHOULD PREDOMINATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS ZETA BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED. AFTER THAT...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ABOUT 700 NMI TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZETA COULD TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD...PARTICULARLY IF ZETA HOLDS TOGETHER LONGER THAN EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW ZETA WILL RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH. THE GFDL...WHICH STRENGTHENS ZETA TO A HURRICANE IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR...TURNS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS KEEP A VERY WEAK SYSTEM ON A WESTERLY OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LATTER SCENARIO...WITH JUST A SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ZETA BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 3 DAYS OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.9N 38.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 38.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 26.0N 41.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 26.3N 42.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 03/1200Z 27.0N 42.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 311430 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 1500Z SAT DEC 31 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 38.2W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 38.2W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 38.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 38.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.0N 41.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.3N 42.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.0N 42.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 38.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 311430 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT DEC 31 2005 ...ZETA TURNS WESTWARD...REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1060 MILES...1710 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.9 N... 38.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 311431 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT DEC 31 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST TUE JAN 3 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.0N 40.0W 45 X X X 45 26.3N 42.0W 19 2 2 1 24 26.0N 41.1W 27 1 1 X 29 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 311435 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SABADO 31 DE DICIEMBRE DE 2005 ...ZETA DIRIGIENDOSE AL OESTE...NO PRESENTA AMENAZA A TIERRA... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 38.2 OESTE O COMO A 1060 MILLAS...1710 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETORS DE SU CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...25.9 NORTE...38.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. ** WTNT80 EGRR 311753 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.12.2005 TROPICAL STORM ZETA ANALYSED AT POSITION: 25.8N 37.8W IDENTFIER: AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.12.2005 25.8N 37.8W MODERATE 00UTC 01.01.2006 26.4N 38.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.01.2006 28.0N 39.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.01.2006 28.0N 39.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.01.2006 29.4N 41.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 311753