** WTIN20 DEMS 310650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 31-12-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL(.) RIDGE LINE PASSES THROUGH 11 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTNT25 KNHC 310812 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0900Z SAT DEC 31 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 37.7W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 30SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 80SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 37.7W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 37.6W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.3N 38.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N 39.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.6N 40.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.6N 41.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 42.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 37.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 310817 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2005 A BURST OF RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION...WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -70C... HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN FACT... IT APPEARS THAT A SMALL CDO FEATURE MAY BE FORMING OVER THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER DEPICTED IN RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA. THE 50-KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. DATA T-NUMBERS USING A CDO FEATURE SUGGEST THE INTENSITY COULD EVEN BE 55-60 KT... BUT I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE CDO-LIKE FEATURE PERSISTS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 6 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING THE INTENSITY ANY FURTHER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/04 KT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 9 HOURS INDICATES ZETA HAS SLOWED ITS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS ZETA COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH... AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS. THE PRIMARY DILEMMA WITH THE TRACK FORECAST IS WHEN WILL ZETA WEAKEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW... AND THEN BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. SINCE ZETA IS CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS THREE RUNS OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING... AN ADDITIONAL 12-24 HOURS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. SINCE THE 00Z GFS MODEL REAMINS POORLY INITIALIZED... THE OFFICIAL TRACK LEANS CLOSER TO THE GFDL-NOGAPS-UKMET CONSENSUS. LIKE THE FORECAST TRACK... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWS 45 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM... WHICH IS LIKELY MUCH TOO STRONG GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SINCE ZETA IS A RELATIVELY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS DELTA AND EPSILON... THE SHIPS SHEAR CALCULATIONS ARE ALSO PROBABLY TOO HIGH WITH ZETA. SINCE THE 300 MB FLOW IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE WESTERLY AT ONLY 15-20 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS... THEN LESS SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WEAKENING THAN FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ZETA COULD EVEN SURVIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0900Z 26.0N 37.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 26.3N 38.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 26.5N 39.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 26.6N 40.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 26.6N 41.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 03/0600Z 27.0N 42.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 310821 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT DEC 31 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE JAN 3 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.5N 39.4W 36 X X X 36 26.6N 41.7W 11 5 2 2 20 26.6N 40.5W 22 2 X 1 25 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 310828 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT DEC 31 2005 ...ZETA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1040 MILES...1670 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES ... 325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR... A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MPH... 63 KM/HR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...26.0 N... 37.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 311103 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SABADO 31 DE DICIEMBRE DE 2005 ...ZETA ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 37.7 OESTE O COMO A 1040 MILLAS...1670 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES.SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS...PRINCIPALMENTE AL NORESTE HASTA EL SURESTE DEL CENTRO. DURANTE LA HORA PASADA...UNA EMBARCACION LOCALIZADA COMO A 35 MILLAS AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO REPORTO VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 39 MPH...63 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...26.0 NORTE...37.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.