** WTSR20 WSSS 301800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT45 KNHC 310243 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005 ZETA IS ROUGHLY HALF OF A TROPICAL STORM... WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER... BUT STILL SOME OF IT NEAR THE FAIRLY TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS AGO AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 TO 45 KT. HI-RES WIND ESTIMATES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 2015Z WERE AS STRONG AS ABOUT 45 KT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. THE QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FARTHER FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WHILE THE FEW 50-60 KT VECTORS WERE NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE... 30-40 KT VECTORS WERE WIDESPREAD IN THE OUTER BANDING EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY. ZETA IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT... BUT A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AT ABOUT 320 DEGREES... PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN DRAGGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE NORTHWARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION OR ITS RECENT MOTION... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE ANTICIPATED STEERING FLOW. THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FULLY OVERTAKE AND SIGNIFICANTLY SHEAR THE TROPICAL STORM. ZETA MIGHT HOLD ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR ALMOST ANOTHER 24 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AS ZETA WEAKENS IT SHOULD BE STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK GRADUALLY BENDS TO THE WEST AS ZETA LIKELY DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 25.9N 37.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 26.1N 38.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 26.2N 39.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 26.2N 40.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 02/0000Z 26.3N 41.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 310243 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0300Z SAT DEC 31 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 37.5W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......175NE 200SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 75SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 37.5W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 37.3W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.1N 38.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.2N 39.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.2N 40.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.3N 41.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 37.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 310245 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005 ...ZETA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FAR FROM LAND WITH 50 MPH WINDS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1035 MILES...1670 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES... 370 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...25.9 N... 37.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 310245 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON JAN 2 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.2N 39.1W 46 X X X 46 26.3N 41.6W 10 5 3 X 18 26.2N 40.3W 22 2 1 X 25 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 310531 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.12.2005 DUE TO COMPUTER PROBLEMS, NO TROPICAL STORM GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE AT PRESENT. APOLOGIES. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 310531