** WTNT45 KNHC 302034 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z WERE T3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHILE AFWA GAVE ZETA A SUBTROPICAL T2.5 CLASSIFICATION. BASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE WELL-DEFINED BANDING STRUCTURES SEEN THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BECOME RAGGED...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE THERE COULD BE BRIEF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING TONIGHT'S CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...STRONG WESTERLIES ARE NOT FAR FROM THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD OVERTAKE ZETA WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING. ZETA IS STILL MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERLIES MOVE IN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ASSUMING ZETA WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...IT SHOULD THEN TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND THE 12Z GFDL. THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS THAT ALICE OFFICIALLY BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AT 1200 UTC 30 DECEMBER 1954. MY WORKING BEST TRACK FOR ZETA CURRENTLY SHOWS STORM STATUS BEGINNING AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING... WHICH TENTATIVELY ALLOWS ZETA TO TIE ALICE FOR THE LATEST FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR CONSIDERING ZETA A TROPICAL STORM AS EARLY AS 0600 UTC THIS MORNING. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE FINAL ANALYSIS OF ZETA'S TRACK TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE ITS FORMATION FALLS RELATIVE TO ALICE'S. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO WANT TO DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS AD NAUSEAM...THE CALENDAR WILL SHORTLY PUT AN END TO THE USE OF THE GREEK ALPHABET TO NAME THEM. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 25.3N 37.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 25.6N 38.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.8N 39.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 40.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 01/1800Z 26.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 302035 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005 ...LATE-SEASON STORM REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1065 MILES...1715 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...25.3 N... 37.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 302035 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 2100Z FRI DEC 30 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 37.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 37.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.6N 38.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.8N 39.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.0N 40.4W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.0N 42.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 37.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 302036 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON JAN 2 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.8N 39.0W 42 X X X 42 26.0N 42.0W 6 8 3 X 17 26.0N 40.4W 19 3 1 X 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$