** WTSR20 WSSS 300600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT25 KNHC 301705 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 1700Z FRI DEC 30 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 36.9W AT 30/1700Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 36.9W AT 30/1700Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 36.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.5N 37.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.0N 38.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 40.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 42.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 36.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 301706 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON JAN 2 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.0N 38.5W 36 X X X 36 26.0N 42.0W 4 8 3 X 15 26.0N 40.0W 18 2 2 X 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 301710 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005 ...LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORM...THE 27TH OF THE YEAR...FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1070 MILES...1720 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1 PM AST POSITION...25.0 N... 36.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 301720 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL NOON EST FRI DEC 30 2005 AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH HAD ITS ORIGINS IN AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH...BEGAN DEVELOPING ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH WELL-FORMED CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE CENTER...WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT...AND TROPICAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS... ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE 27TH TROPICAL STORM OF 2005. THE INTIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE RULE- CONSTRAINED T2.5 CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE T3.5 DATA T NUMBERS. WITHIN 24 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE CYCLONE...SO ZETA PROBABLY HAS A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7...AS ZETA IS MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEAR...IT SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO THE WEST THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1700Z 25.0N 36.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 25.5N 37.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 26.0N 38.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 01/1200Z 26.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$