** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 281213 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/12/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 18/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 28/12/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 63.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALLY 25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/29 AT 00 UTC: 18.8S / 61.7E, MAX WIND = 20 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/12/29 AT 12 UTC: 19.8S / 59.9E, MAX WIND = 20 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLES, THE SYSTEM NR06 IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 281213 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/6/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/28 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 63.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/29 00 UTC: 18.8S/61.7E, MAX WIND=020KT. 24H: 2005/12/29 12 UTC: 19.8S/59.9E, MAX WIND=020KT. 36H: 2005/12/30 00 UTC: 20.8S/58.1E, MAX WIND=020KT. 48H: 2005/12/30 12 UTC: 21.9S/56.2E, MAX WIND=020KT. 60H: 2005/12/31 00 UTC: 22.1S/55.5E, MAX WIND=020KT. 72H: 2005/12/31 12 UTC: 22.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=020KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED, ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS WEAK. SYSTEM NR06 IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY IN THE TROUGH SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 281213 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/12/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 18/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 28/12/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 63.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALLY 25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/29 AT 00 UTC: 18.8S / 61.7E, MAX WIND = 20 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/12/29 AT 12 UTC: 19.8S / 59.9E, MAX WIND = 20 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLES, THE SYSTEM NR06 IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 281213 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/12/2005 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 18/6 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 28/12/2005 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: ZONE PERTURBEE 6 1005 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6S / 63.9E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 180 MN. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNNAIRE 20 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, LOCALEMENT 25 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 29/12/2005 A 00 UTC: 18.8S / 61.7E, VENT MAX = 20 KT. A 24H POUR LE 29/12/2005 A 12 UTC: 19.8S / 59.9E, VENT MAX = 20 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE SONT PAS FAVORABLES, LE SYSTEME NR06 EST PREVU POURSUIVRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, SANS INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. DERNIER BMS SUR CE SYSTEME, SAUF NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 281213 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/6/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/28 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 63.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/29 00 UTC: 18.8S/61.7E, MAX WIND=020KT. 24H: 2005/12/29 12 UTC: 19.8S/59.9E, MAX WIND=020KT. 36H: 2005/12/30 00 UTC: 20.8S/58.1E, MAX WIND=020KT. 48H: 2005/12/30 12 UTC: 21.9S/56.2E, MAX WIND=020KT. 60H: 2005/12/31 00 UTC: 22.1S/55.5E, MAX WIND=020KT. 72H: 2005/12/31 12 UTC: 22.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=020KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED, ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS WEAK. SYSTEM NR06 IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY IN THE TROUGH SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. .