** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 ***
NO STORM WARNING=




** WTIO20 FMEE 280020 ***
SECURITE

WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/12/2005

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 017/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 28/12/2005 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1004 HPA

POSITION:          WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 66.6E

(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES

EAST

) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT:          WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER  EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING

UP

TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.



CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30

NM

RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT IN

THE

 SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2005/12/28 AT 12 UTC:

16.1S / 65.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.

24H, VALID 2005/12/29 AT 00 UTC:

16.7S / 63.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT.



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS BAD DEFINED AND HAS BEEN RELOCALISED

MORE

 NORTHEASTERN.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC AND IS MAINLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST FROM

THE

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS LIMITED.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHOUT

INTENSIFYING

SIGNIFICANTLY.

INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR

WARNINGS.=




** WTIO30 FMEE 280031 ***


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 17/6/20052006

1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6



2.A POSITION 2005/12/28 AT 0000 UTC :

WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 66.6E

(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES

EAST

)



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/2.0 /S  0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT



6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2005/12/28 12 UTC: 16.1S/65.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.

DISTURBANCE.

24H: 2005/12/29 00 UTC: 16.7S/63.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.

DEPRESSION.

36H: 2005/12/29 12 UTC: 17.3S/61.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.

DEPRESSION.

48H: 2005/12/30 00 UTC: 18.2S/59.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.

DEPRESSION.

60H: 2005/12/30 12 UTC: 19.2S/57.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.

DISTURBANCE.

72H: 2005/12/31 00 UTC: 20.2S/55.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.

DISTURBANCE.



2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:

T=1.5 AND CI=2.0-

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS BAD DEFINED.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC AND IS MAINLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST FROM

THE

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS LIMITED.

VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 24

HOURS

.

THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AT SHORT RANGE, BUT UNDERGOING

UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONNEMENT (SST AND MORE DRY AIR) AT MIDDLE RANGE.

IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE

NORTHERN

EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.



INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR

WARNINGS.=