** WTIO20 FMEE 270631 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/12/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 15/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 27/12/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 69.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/27 AT 18 UTC: 16.1S / 66.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2005/12/28 AT 06 UTC: 16.4S / 65.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: UNDERGOING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMETAL CONDITIONS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED DURING LAST NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 270640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 27-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA (.) ** WTIN20 DEMS 270640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 27-12-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA (.) ** WTIO20 FMEE 270631 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/12/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 15/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 27/12/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 69.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/27 AT 18 UTC: 16.1S / 66.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2005/12/28 AT 06 UTC: 16.4S / 65.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: UNDERGOING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMETAL CONDITIONS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED DURING LAST NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. ** WTIO21 FMEE 270631 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 27/12/2005 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 15/6 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 27/12/2005 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 6 1000 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.3S / 69.8E (QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 150 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNNAIRE 25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 27/12/2005 A 18 UTC: 16.1S / 66.6E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 28/12/2005 A 06 UTC: 16.4S / 65.0E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: A LA FAVEUR DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUS FAVORBALES, LA CONVECTION S'EST ORGANISEE AU COURS DE LA NUIT DERNIERE. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SANS INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DU SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. ** WTIO30 FMEE 270701 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/27 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 69.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/27 18 UTC: 16.1S/66.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2005/12/28 06 UTC: 16.4S/65.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2005/12/28 18 UTC: 16.4S/63.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2005/12/29 06 UTC: 16.7S/62.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2005/12/29 18 UTC: 17.0S/60.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2005/12/30 06 UTC: 17.7S/58.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 UNDERGOING MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAKENING AND A WARM SST ANOMALY EXISTS ALONG 15S AXIS AND BETWEEN 68E AND 75E), CONVECTION CONSOLIDATED LAST NIGHT BUT DURING THAT TIME , WINDS DID NOT SIGNIFICANTLY RE-INFORCE. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RE-INFORCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AT SHORT RANGE AND THEN WEAKEN AT MEDIUM RANGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY ON RODRIGUES ISLAND. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 270701 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/27 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 69.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/27 18 UTC: 16.1S/66.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2005/12/28 06 UTC: 16.4S/65.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2005/12/28 18 UTC: 16.4S/63.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2005/12/29 06 UTC: 16.7S/62.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2005/12/29 18 UTC: 17.0S/60.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2005/12/30 06 UTC: 17.7S/58.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 UNDERGOING MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAKENING AND A WARM SST ANOMALY EXISTS ALONG 15S AXIS AND BETWEEN 68E AND 75E), CONVECTION CONSOLIDATED LAST NIGHT BUT DURING THAT TIME , WINDS DID NOT SIGNIFICANTLY RE-INFORCE. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RE-INFORCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AT SHORT RANGE AND THEN WEAKEN AT MEDIUM RANGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY ON RODRIGUES ISLAND. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. .