** WTSR20 WSSS 251800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 260030 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/12/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 26/12/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 75.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 250 MN IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING 25/30 KT UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/26 AT 12 UTC: 14.4S / 72.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2005/12/27 AT 00 UTC: 15.4S / 69.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 36 HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS LESS AND LESS CIRCULAR AND LOCATION OF THE CENTRE IS UNCERTAIN.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 260045 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 75.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/26 12 UTC: 14.4S/72.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2005/12/27 00 UTC: 15.4S/69.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2005/12/27 12 UTC: 16.3S/67.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2005/12/28 00 UTC: 17.8S/65.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2005/12/28 12 UTC: 19.7S/63.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/12/29 00 UTC: 21.8S/61.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0-, CI=2.0- LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND EXPOSED EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS STRONGLY EASTERLY SHEARED, IT HAS TRACKED WESTWARDS WITH ACCELERATION DURING LAST HOURS. THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES. NWP PRODUCTS DOESN'T AGREE BEYOND 48H ABOUT THE EVACUATION TOWARDS THE POLAR TROUGH OR NOT. WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK, BUT RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY IMPORTANT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 260045 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 75.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/26 12 UTC: 14.4S/72.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2005/12/27 00 UTC: 15.4S/69.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2005/12/27 12 UTC: 16.3S/67.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2005/12/28 00 UTC: 17.8S/65.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2005/12/28 12 UTC: 19.7S/63.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/12/29 00 UTC: 21.8S/61.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0-, CI=2.0- LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND EXPOSED EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS STRONGLY EASTERLY SHEARED, IT HAS TRACKED WESTWARDS WITH ACCELERATION DURING LAST HOURS. THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES. NWP PRODUCTS DOESN'T AGREE BEYOND 48H ABOUT THE EVACUATION TOWARDS THE POLAR TROUGH OR NOT. WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK, BUT RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY IMPORTANT. .