** WTSR20 WSSS 250600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 251206 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/12/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 25/12/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 78.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING 30 KT UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/26 AT 00 UTC: 14.2S / 75.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/12/26 AT 12 UTC: 14.9S / 73.3E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS. STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 251206 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/25 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 78.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/26 00 UTC: 14.2S/75.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/12/26 12 UTC: 14.9S/73.3E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/12/27 00 UTC: 15.8S/71.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/12/27 12 UTC: 17.0S/68.8E, MAX WIND=035KT. 60H: 2005/12/28 00 UTC: 18.3S/66.7E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/12/28 12 UTC: 20.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0-, CI=2.0 LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND WIDELY EXPOSED EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLING CONVECTION. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER STRONG BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 251757 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/12/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 25/12/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 76.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 250 MN IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING 25/30 KT UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/26 AT 06 UTC: 14.5S / 74.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2005/12/26 AT 18 UTC: 15.4S / 71.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS LESS AND LESS CIRCULAR AND LOCATION OF THE CENTRE IS UNCERTAIN. STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 251757 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 76.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.5S/74.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 15.4S/71.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2005/12/27 06 UTC: 16.7S/69.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2005/12/27 18 UTC: 18.2S/66.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2005/12/28 06 UTC: 20.4S/64.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2005/12/28 18 UTC: 23.0S/63.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0-, CI=2.0- LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND EXPOSED EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLING CONVECTION. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER STRONG BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 251757 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 76.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.5S/74.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 15.4S/71.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2005/12/27 06 UTC: 16.7S/69.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2005/12/27 18 UTC: 18.2S/66.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2005/12/28 06 UTC: 20.4S/64.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2005/12/28 18 UTC: 23.0S/63.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0-, CI=2.0- LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND EXPOSED EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLING CONVECTION. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER STRONG BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 251757 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/12/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 25/12/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 76.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 250 MN IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING 25/30 KT UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/26 AT 06 UTC: 14.5S / 74.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2005/12/26 AT 18 UTC: 15.4S / 71.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS LESS AND LESS CIRCULAR AND LOCATION OF THE CENTRE IS UNCERTAIN. STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 251757 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 25/12/2005 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 012/06 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 25/12/2005 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 6 1002 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.7S / 76.7E (TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEIZE DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 15 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNNAIRE 15/20 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT 25/30 KT JUSQU'A 50 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 26/12/2005 A 06 UTC: 14.5S / 74.0E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 26/12/2005 A 18 UTC: 15.4S / 71.4E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER REGULIEREMENT OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST AU-DELA DES 24 HEURES. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES-COUCHES EST DE MOINS EN MOINS CIRCULAIRE ET LA POSITION DU CENTRE EST INCERTAINE. LES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDENT PLUS LOIN DANS LE SUD DU SYSTEME EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. .