** WTIO20 FMEE 250607 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/12/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 25/12/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 79.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING 30 KT UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/25 AT 18 UTC: 13.4S / 76.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/12/26 AT 06 UTC: 14.2S / 74.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS. STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 250607 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 79.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 13.4S/76.9E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.2S/74.4E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 15.3S/71.9E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2005/12/27 06 UTC: 16.6S/69.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 60H: 2005/12/27 18 UTC: 18.2S/67.4E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/12/28 06 UTC: 20.0S/65.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WIDELY EXPOSED EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLING CONVECTION. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER STRONG BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 250615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 25-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA . STRONG WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER AREA (.) ** WTIO30 FMEE 250607 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 79.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 13.4S/76.9E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.2S/74.4E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 15.3S/71.9E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2005/12/27 06 UTC: 16.6S/69.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 60H: 2005/12/27 18 UTC: 18.2S/67.4E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/12/28 06 UTC: 20.0S/65.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WIDELY EXPOSED EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLING CONVECTION. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER STRONG BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS. ** WTXS31 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 79.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 79.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 13.6S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 14.2S 74.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 15.0S 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 15.8S 69.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 78.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUE TO A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE STORM WILL NOT INTENSIFY MUCH PAST ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//