** WTSR20 WSSS 241800 ***
NO STORM WARNING=




** WTIO20 FMEE 250022 ***
SECURITE

WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/12/2005

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 008/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY    25/12/2005 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1000 HPA

POSITION:          WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 81.0E

(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES  SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO

DEGREES

  EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT:          WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING

UP

TO 300 MN IN THE WESTERN SECTOR.



CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30

NM

RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING 30 KT UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2005/12/25 AT 12 UTC:

13.6S / 78.3E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.

24H, VALID 2005/12/26 AT 00 UTC:

13.8S / 76.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT.



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS.

 STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE

GRADIENT

EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=




** WTIO30 FMEE 250022 ***


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 8/6/20052006

1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6



2.A POSITION 2005/12/25 AT 0000 UTC :

WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 81.0E

(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO

DEGREES

EAST)



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /W  0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT



6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

30 KT   NE:       SE: 090   SO: 090   NO:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2005/12/25 12 UTC: 13.6S/78.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.

24H: 2005/12/26 00 UTC: 13.8S/76.1E, MAX WIND=030KT.

36H: 2005/12/26 12 UTC: 14.6S/74.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.

48H: 2005/12/27 00 UTC: 15.5S/71.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.

60H: 2005/12/27 12 UTC: 16.5S/69.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.

72H: 2005/12/28 00 UTC: 18.0S/67.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.



2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=2.0

LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED

EAST

OF AN AREA OF CYCLING CONVECTION. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

REMAINS

MODERATE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS

WHEN

THE SYSTEM TRACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS

ON

THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=