** WTIO20 FMEE 241812 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/12/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/12/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8S / 82.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING 30 KT UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/25 AT 06 UTC: 13.6S / 80.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/12/25 AT 18 UTC: 14.3S / 77.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 241812 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/12/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/12/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8S / 82.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING 30 KT UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/25 AT 06 UTC: 13.6S / 80.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/12/25 AT 18 UTC: 14.3S / 77.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 241812 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 24/12/2005 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 007/06 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 24/12/2005 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 6 999 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8S / 82.5E (DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT 30 KT JUSQU'A 50 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 25/12/2005 A 06 UTC: 13.6S / 80.0E, VENT MAX = 25 KT. A 24H POUR LE 25/12/2005 A 18 UTC: 14.3S / 77.8E, VENT MAX = 30 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDENT PLUS LOIN DANS LE SUD DU SYSTEME EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 241812 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/24 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8S / 82.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/25 06 UTC: 13.6S/80.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 14.3S/77.8E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 15.0S/76.1E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 16.0S/74.4E, MAX WIND=035KT. 60H: 2005/12/27 06 UTC: 17.0S/72.3E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/12/27 18 UTC: 18.4S/70.1E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0, CI=2.0+ LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED EAST OF AN AREA OF CYCLING CONVECTION. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM TRACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 242100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 82.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 82.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 13.3S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 13.9S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 14.7S 74.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 15.7S 72.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 81.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY ABATE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING THE TC TO INTENSIFY, BUT AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//