** WTIO20 FMEE 240607 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/12/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/12/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 84.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN IN THE WESTERN SECTOR AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/24 AT 18 UTC: 12.2S / 82.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/12/25 AT 06 UTC: 12.9S / 81.0E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 240608 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/24 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 84.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/24 18 UTC: 12.2S/82.9E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/12/25 06 UTC: 12.9S/81.0E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 13.6S/78.9E, MAX WIND=040KT. 48H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.5S/76.8E, MAX WIND=045KT. 60H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 15.3S/74.8E, MAX WIND=050KT. 72H: 2005/12/27 06 UTC: 16.2S/72.5E, MAX WIND=055KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS CYCLIC, ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 240607 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 24/12/2005 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 005/06 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 24/12/2005 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 6 998 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.5S / 84.8E (ONZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST, ET JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 50 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/12/2005 A 18 UTC: 12.2S / 82.9E, VENT MAX = 30 KT. A 24H POUR LE 25/12/2005 A 06 UTC: 12.9S / 81.0E, VENT MAX = 35 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN S'INTENSIFIANT LENTEMENT. LES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDENT PLUS LOIN DANS LE SUD DU SYSTEME EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 240608 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/24 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 84.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/24 18 UTC: 12.2S/82.9E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/12/25 06 UTC: 12.9S/81.0E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 13.6S/78.9E, MAX WIND=040KT. 48H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.5S/76.8E, MAX WIND=045KT. 60H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 15.3S/74.8E, MAX WIND=050KT. 72H: 2005/12/27 06 UTC: 16.2S/72.5E, MAX WIND=055KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS CYCLIC, ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 240607 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/12/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/12/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 84.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN IN THE WESTERN SECTOR AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/12/24 AT 18 UTC: 12.2S / 82.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/12/25 AT 06 UTC: 12.9S / 81.0E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 240635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 24-12-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE NOW LIES OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA. STRONG WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. ** WTXS31 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 85.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 85.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 12.7S 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 13.1S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 13.6S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 14.5S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 84.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WHILE TC 04S IS IN AN EN- VIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS DECENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL BE INHIBITED FROM SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ITS HIGH SPEED OF MOVEMENT. A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//