** WTPQ20 RJTD 191800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 191800UTC 09.3N 110.3E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 201800UTC 09.5N 108.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 25W WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 9.4N 110.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 110.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 10.0N 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 10.6N 107.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 10.8N 105.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 10.6N 103.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 10.3N 101.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 10.1N 98.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 10.6N 96.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 109.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 83.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 83.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 11.0N 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.1N 83.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 13.5N 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.7N 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 83.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECREAS- ING CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07B HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGES OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND INDOCHINA. A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA WILL ERODE THE WESTERN STEER- ING RIDGE AND ENHANCE THE POLEWARD FLOW OF THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE CAUSING TC 07B TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CREATED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIG- NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 192100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 192100UTC 09.3N 110.2E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 202100UTC 09.5N 107.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT =