** WTPQ20 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 190600UTC 09.4N 110.8E POOR MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 200600UTC 09.4N 109.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.4N 110.8E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 190900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 25W WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 8.9N 111.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 111.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 9.3N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 9.4N 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 9.4N 106.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 9.1N 105.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 8.6N 102.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 110.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 190900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 11.7N 82.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 82.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 12.2N 82.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 12.9N 82.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 13.8N 82.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.8N 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 82.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECREASING CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGES OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND INDOCHINA, RESPECTIVELY. AN UPSTREAM MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE, THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE AXIS WILL ORIENT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AND TC 07B WILL BEGIN TO CURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS PARALLEL TO THE INDIAN COASTLINE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER SHEAR AND DRY, STABLE AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.// ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.4N 110.8E 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL (TYPHOON MODEL) ON TD LOCATED AT 09.4N 110.8E AT 06 UTC IS VALID TILL 36 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.4N 110.8E 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL (TYPHOON MODEL) ON TD LOCATED AT 09.4N 110.8E AT 06 UTC IS VALID TILL 36 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 190900UTC 09.6N 110.7E POOR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 200900UTC 10.1N 108.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT =