** WTPN21 PGTW 180200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/180151ZDEC2005// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170221ZDEC2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 116.6E TO 7.8N 111.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 172330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 115.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 120.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 115.5E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172154Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE CONTINUED DEEP CONVEC- TION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. QUIKSCAT AND SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DISTURBANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CHINA ENHAN- CING THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVOR- ABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190200Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 180200 *** REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151Z DEC 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 116.6E TO 7.8N 111.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 172330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 115.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190200Z. // WP, 95, 2005121418, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1328E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 95, 2005121500, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1306E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 95, 2005121506, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1286E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 95, 2005121512, , BEST, 0, 79N, 1273E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 95, 2005121518, , BEST, 0, 82N, 1263E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 95, 2005121600, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1254E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 95, 2005121606, , BEST, 0, 93N, 1241E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 175, 25, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 95, 2005121612, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1227E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 175, 25, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 95, 2005121618, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1217E, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 175, 50, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 95, 2005121700, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1205E, 25, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 175, 50, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 95, 2005121706, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1193E, 25, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 165, 50, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 95, 2005121712, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1181E, 25, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 165, 50, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 95, 2005121718, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1167E, 25, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 165, 50, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 95, 2005121800, , BEST, 0, 88N, 1155E, 25, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, ** WTPH RPLL 180000 *** TTT WARNING 07 AT 0000 18 DECEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 10.8N 115.8E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 04MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 190000 09.5N 112.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD=