** WTIN20 DEMS 170633 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 17-12-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) SUBJECT: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS AND HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION WHICH LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 17H DECEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT. 8.0 DEG N AND LONG 84.0 DEG E ABOUT 300 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS SRILANKA COAST NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 DEG N BY 18TH EVENING. MODERATE TO INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE (.) FORECAST INTENSITY T 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. ---- ** WTBW20 VGDC 170741 *** WHIRL WIND ========== ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL CHARTS AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND WAS CENTRED AT 17,0600 UTC WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 8.0 DEG N AND LONG. 83.0 DEG E (R) LAT. 8.0 DEG N AND LONG. 83.0 DEG E IT IS LIEKLY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WES/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MAXM. SUNSAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 24 NM OF THE DEPRESSION CENTRE IS 22 KTS RISING TO 27 KTS IN GUSTS/SQUALL SEA WILL REMAIN MODERATE MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX'S BAZAR AND MONGLA. ----------------------------------------------------- KEEP HOISTED DISTANT CAUTIONARY SIGNAL NO ONE (R) ONE ALSO KEEP HOISTED LOCALITY SIGNAL NO 5 (R) 5= ** WTBW20 VGDC 170741 *** WHIRL WIND ========== ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL CHARTS AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND WAS CENTRED AT 17,0600 UTC WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 8.0 DEG N AND LONG. 83.0 DEG E (R) LAT. 8.0 DEG N AND LONG. 83.0 DEG E IT IS LIEKLY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WES/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MAXM. SUNSAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 24 NM OF THE DEPRESSION CENTRE IS 22 KTS RISING TO 27 KTS IN GUSTS/SQUALL SEA WILL REMAIN MODERATE MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX'S BAZAR AND MONGLA. ----------------------------------------------------- KEEP HOISTED DISTANT CAUTIONARY SIGNAL NO ONE (R) ONE ALSO KEEP HOISTED LOCALITY SIGNAL NO 5 (R) 5= ** WTPH20 RPMM 170600 *** T T T WARNING 04 AT 0600 17 DECEMBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180600 ONE TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE EAST AT 190600 ONE FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 170600 *** TTT WARNING 03 AT 0600 17 DECEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 10.6 NORTH 118.6 EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04 MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15 MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180600 12.4 NORTH 115.9 EAST AT 190600 14.4 NORTH 114.3 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HRLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTIO31 PGTW 170900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 8.4N 83.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 83.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 8.9N 82.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 9.5N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 10.0N 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 10.5N 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 83.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN INDOCHINA. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED POLEWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN INDIA. THE STORM SHOULD INTENSIFY MODESTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//