** WTIN20 DEMS 161810 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 16-12-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) SUBJECT: DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 16TH DECEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT. 8.0 DEG N AND LONG 84.5 DEG E ABOUT 600 KM SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM IS LIEKLY TO MOVE TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 2 DAYS . MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM (.) MSG OVER ** WTIO21 PGTW 162000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/161951ZDEC2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4N 84.6E TO 7.6N 81.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 84.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 84.E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 161510Z SSMI PASS REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A RECENT INCREASE OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE RECENT TRACK AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS ENTERING A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITH INCREASED EASTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 172000Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 161800 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 1800 16 DECEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 11.0 NORTH 122.5 EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 05 MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200 KMS RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE 150 KMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15 MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 171800 12.4 NORTH 118.8 EAST AT 181800 12.9 NORTH 114.7 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HRLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTIO21 PGTW 162000 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/161951ZDEC2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4N 84.6E TO 7.6N 81.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 84.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 84.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 161510Z SSMI PASS REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE RECENT TRACK AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS ENTERING A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITH INCREASED EASTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 172000Z. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED LONGITUDE IN PREVIOUS POSITION IN REMARKS.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 161800 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 1800 16 DECEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 171800 ONE TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AT 181800 ONE TWO POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTIO21 PGTW 162000 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED/161951ZDEC2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4N 84.6E TO 7.6N 81.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 84.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 84.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 161510Z SSMI PASS REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE RECENT TRACK AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS ENTERING A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITH INCREASED EASTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 172000Z. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED LONGITUDE IN PREVIOUS POSITION IN REMARKS.// ** WTIO21 PGTW 162000 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED/161951ZDEC2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4N 84.6E TO 7.6N 81.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 84.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 84.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 161510Z SSMI PASS REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE RECENT TRACK AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS ENTERING A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITH INCREASED EASTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 172000Z. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED LONGITUDE IN PREVIOUS POSITION IN REMARKS.//