** WTIO31 PGTW 080900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (FANOOS) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 10.4N 85.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 85.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 10.6N 84.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 10.7N 82.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 11.0N 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 11.5N 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 85.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (FANOOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 06B IS MOVING SLOWLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT RECEIVES STEERING INFLUENCE FROM TWO ADJACENT RIDGES. THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INGESTION OF DRY STABLE AIR, AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 080900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (FANOOS) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 10.4N 85.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 85.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 10.6N 84.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 10.7N 82.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 11.0N 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 11.5N 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 85.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (FANOOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 06B IS MOVING SLOWLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT RECEIVES STEERING INFLUENCE FROM TWO ADJACENT RIDGES. THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INGESTION OF DRY STABLE AIR, AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 080840 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0900Z THU DEC 08 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 39.6W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 300SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 39.6W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 39.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.8N 39.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N 38.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 39.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 080849 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU DEC 08 2005 ...EPSILON RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 39.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1050 MILES... 1690 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... BUT IT IS SLOWING DOWN AND IS OVERALL EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF EPSILON ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST... AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...27.1 N... 39.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 080850 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU DEC 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN DEC 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.7N 38.9W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 080858 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005 EPSILON IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO FINALLY ACHIEVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED. THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DECREASING THIS MORNING AND ONLY REMAINS IN A VERY LIMITED AREA DOWNSHEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS 06Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... AND THE FACT THAT SINCE THEN THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED. THE CONVECTION IS DYING OFF SO FAST THAT IT WILL PROBABLY BE COMPLETELY GONE BY THE EFFECTIVE TIME OF THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BUT HAS SLOWED DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 215/7 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST IT MIGHT BE EVEN SLOWER THAN THAT. EPSILON WILL SOON BE A REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE ALL THAT MUCH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS COLLAPSING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF THE REMANT LOW STILL EXISTS BEYOND 24 HOURS... IT WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST A NEW EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER IT ABSORBS EPSILON... BUT THAT WOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF HAPPENING EVEN WITHOUT THE REMANTS OF EPSILON. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 27.1N 39.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 26.8N 39.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 09/0600Z 26.7N 38.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 020600 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -BAAZ- WARNING NR 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 020000Z NEAR 12.5N 83.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 5 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 020600 13.0N 83.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 021200 13.0N 82.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 021800 13.4N 82.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 030000 14.1N 81.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS 30 HRS VALID AT: 030600 14.9N 80.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS ** WTIN20 DEMS 080600 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -FANOOS- WARNING NR 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 080000Z NEAR 10.6N 86.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 5 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 080600 10.6N 85.2E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 081200 10.6N 84.8E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 081800 11.0N 84.1E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 090000 11.2N 83.7E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 30 HRS VALID AT: 090600 11.5N 83.3E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 36 HRS VALID AT: 091200 12.0N 82.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 42 HRS VALID AT: 091800 12.7N 82.1E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS 48 HRS VALID AT: 100000 13.5N 81.3E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS NEXT WARNING AT 081800 ** WTIN01 DEMS 080900 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2005 08 12 0900/UTC: 08 DEC,2005 PART I: YESTERDAY'S CYCLONIC STORM OVER SOUTH EAST AND ADJOINING SOUTH WEST BAY NOW LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 8TH DEC 2005 WITHIN HALF A DEG OF LAT 10.5 DEG N AND LONG 86.0 DEG E ABOUT 650 KMS EAST SOUTH EAST OF CHENNAI (.) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION (.) PART II : WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)(.) PART III: FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N WEST OF 80 DEG E I)WIND : NE 05/10 KTS BEC N/NW 05/10 KTS(.) WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER : SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE NORTH OF 05 DEG N AND EAST OF 70 DEG E REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.) III)VISIBILITY : POOR IN RAIN(.) IV) STATE OF SEA: SLIGHT ARB-A2-ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG N I) WIND: MAINLY NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.) II)WEATHER : FAIR(.) III)VISIBILITY: GOOD IV)STATE OF SEA: SLIGHT(.) BOB-A3-BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 15 DEG N EAST OF 80 DEG E I) WIND: CYCLONIC 50/55 KTS AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT 10.5 DEG N AND 86.0 DEG E WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 500 KMS(.) WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II)WEATHER : WIDE SPREAD RA/TS(.) III)VISIBILITY: POOR IN RAIN (.) IV)STATE OF SEA: VERY HIGH(.) BOB-A4-BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 15 DEG N I)WIND: SE-LY 15/20 KTS BEC NE-LY 20/25 KTS (.) WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II)WEATHER : SCATTERED RA/TS(.) III)VISIBILITY: POOR IN RAIN (.) IV)STATE OF SEA: MODERATE(.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT