** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIN01 DEMS 080100 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 12 HRS. FROM 2005 12 08 0100/UTC: 08TH DEC,2005 SPECIAL GMDSS BLTN PART I: THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER SW BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY WEST WARD AND LAY CENTRED AT 2330 HRS IST OF 08TH DEC 2005 NEAR DEGREE OF LAT 11.0 DEG N AND LONG 86.0 DEG E ABOUT 650 KMS OF EAST SOUTH EAST OF CHENNAI (.) SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST DURING 48 HRS (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTNT24 KNHC 080230 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0300Z THU DEC 08 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 39.2W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 300SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 39.2W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.9N 39.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.7N 39.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 080230 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005 THE NORTHWESTERLIES ARRIVED OVER EPSILON THIS AFTERNOON...STRIPPING THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. USING A BLEND OF T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT. WITH EVEN STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ON THE WAY...EPSILON WILL DECAY RAPIDLY...PERHAPS LOSING ALL CONVECTION BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/10. EPSILON WILL BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW AS IT DECAYS...AND THIS FLOW...CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY...WILL WEAKEN AND REVERSE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS WITH THE GFS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 27.8N 39.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 26.9N 39.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 26.7N 39.8W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 080231 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED DEC 07 2005 ...EPSILON BEGINS TO WEAKEN...SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST OR ABOUT 995 MILES...1605 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME EXTREMELY HOSTILE OVER EPSILON AND RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...27.8 N... 39.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 080231 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED DEC 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT DEC 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.7N 39.8W 66 X X X 66 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 080538 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.12.2005 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 38.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.12.2005 28.0N 38.5W WEAK 12UTC 08.12.2005 27.2N 39.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.12.2005 27.8N 39.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080538