** WTIN01 DEMS 071800 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2005 07 12 1800/UTC: 07 DEC 2005 PART-I: THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER SOUTH EAST BAY REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LIES CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF 07 TH DEC 2005 WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT.11.0 DEG N/LONG 86.5 DEG E ABOUT 700 KMS ESE OF CHENNAI THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A W-LY DIRECTION TOWARDS TAMIL NADU COAST DURING NEXT 36 HRS.(.) PART-II:THE CYCIR EXTENDING UP TO 2.1 KM ASL OVER SOUTH EAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA PERSISTS (.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET. AREA VIII(N) PART-III : FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQ. TO 10 DEG. N . WEST OF 80 DEG.E. I)WIND:- E/NE 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE WEST OF 70 DEG E AND NORTH OF 07 DEG N (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS.IN RA/TS(.) II) WEATHER:- SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE NORTH OF 5 DEG N AND EAST OF 70 DEG E REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA :- SLIGHT (.) ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT. 10 DEG. NORTH I) WIND:- MAINLY NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.) II) WEATHER:- ISOLATED (.) III)VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT (.) BOB-A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQ. TO LAT. 15 DEG.N.EAST OF 80 DEG. EAST I)WIND :-CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT 11.0 DEG N AND LONG 87.5 DEG E WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 500 KMS (.) WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II) WEATHER :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA:- HIGH(.) BOB-A4 BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT. 15 DEG. N I) WIND:- MAINLY NE-LY 20/25 KTS BEC VARIABLE TO THE NORTH OF LAT 18 DEG N (.) WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE TO ROUGH (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTNT44 KNHC 072046 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005 THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND THE AIRFORCE CONTINUE TO CLASSIFY EPSILON AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE..WITH T NUMBERS 3.0-4.0 FROM SAB AND 3.5-4.0 FROM THE AIRFORCE RESPECTIVELY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS...UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON...WITH THE STORM REMAINING IN A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC..NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EPSILON CONTINUES TO BE STEERED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...235/13...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STORM. THE FORECAST RATIONALE FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING EPSILON TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STORM AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO EPSILONS WEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE STORM...WEAKENING IS LIKELY...WITH EPSILON FALLING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY THURSDAY. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. FORECASTER ORAVEC FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 28.1N 38.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 27.2N 39.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 25.4N 39.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 24.5N 40.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.6N 40.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 072050 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 5 PM AST WED DEC 07 2005 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST OR ABOUT 945 MILES...1515 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ...EPSILON REMAINS A MINIMAL HURRICANE WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...28.3 N... 38.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER ORAVEC $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 072053 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 5 PM AST WED DEC 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT DEC 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.4N 39.8W 45 X X X 45 23.6N 40.1W 14 8 2 X 24 24.5N 40.0W 30 2 X X 32 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER ORAVEC $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 072053 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 5 PM AST WED DEC 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT DEC 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.4N 39.8W 45 X X X 45 23.6N 40.1W 14 8 2 X 24 24.5N 40.0W 30 2 X X 32 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER ORAVEC $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 072104 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 2100Z WED DEC 07 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 38.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 213 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 110SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 38.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 38.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.2N 39.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.4N 39.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.6N 40.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 38.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z FORECASTER ORAVEC $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 072109 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 2100Z WED DEC 07 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 38.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 213 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 110SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 38.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 38.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.2N 39.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.4N 39.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.6N 40.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 38.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z FORECASTER ORAVEC $$