** WTSR20 WSSS 070600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT34 KNHC 071436 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED DEC 07 2005 ...PERSISTENT EPSILON REMAINS A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TOMORROW... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST OR ABOUT 875 MILES...1410 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A GRADUALLY DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...29.1 N... 37.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 071437 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 1500Z WED DEC 07 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 37.9W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 37.9W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 37.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.8N 38.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.4N 39.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.3N 40.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.6N 40.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 37.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 071437 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED DEC 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT DEC 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.4N 39.7W 47 X X X 47 24.6N 40.4W 15 8 2 X 25 25.3N 40.3W 28 2 1 X 31 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 071451 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005 EPSILON IS STILL A BORDERLINE HURRICANE WITH A VERY RAGGED EYE... AND OUTFLOW THAT REMAINS MOSTLY UNDISTURBED BY THE STRONG WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HI-RES QUIKSCAT DATA AT 08Z CONTAINED A FEW 60 KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. AT 12-KM SPACING THESE VALUES WERE PROBABLY SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATES OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED... ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS THE QUESTION OF WHETHER ENOUGH OF THE SIGNAL IS COMING FROM THE OCEAN SURFACE. THE QUIKSCAT DATA DO SEEM REPRESENTATIVE WHEN CONSIDERING THAT 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT... AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM 09Z AVERAGED TO ABOUT 65 KT. EPSILON CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD RIGHT ALONG THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER... ABOUT 235/13. THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS LONG AS EPSILON PRODUCES SOME DEEP CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY BEND A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND SLOW DOWN AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY BEGINS TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON QUITE AS FAST AS THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SUGGESTING... BUT EVEN THE OFTEN SHEAR-RESISTANT GFDL FORECASTS WEAKENING TO LESS THAN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 36 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON COULD STAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ADVANCES EASTWARD. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY SOLUTION... WHICH IS ONLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE GFDL IN ANTICIPATING A GRADUALLY SLOWING SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF EPSILON UNTIL IT IS SHEARED APART. EPSILON IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE BY 48 HOURS INTO A REMNANT LOW... WHICH SHOULD THEREAFTER BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE PASSING TO ITS NORTH. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 29.1N 37.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 27.8N 38.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 26.4N 39.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 25.3N 40.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.6N 40.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 071451 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005 EPSILON IS STILL A BORDERLINE HURRICANE WITH A VERY RAGGED EYE... AND OUTFLOW THAT REMAINS MOSTLY UNDISTURBED BY THE STRONG WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HI-RES QUIKSCAT DATA AT 08Z CONTAINED A FEW 60 KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. AT 12-KM SPACING THESE VALUES WERE PROBABLY SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATES OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED... ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS THE QUESTION OF WHETHER ENOUGH OF THE SIGNAL IS COMING FROM THE OCEAN SURFACE. THE QUIKSCAT DATA DO SEEM REPRESENTATIVE WHEN CONSIDERING THAT 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT... AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM 09Z AVERAGED TO ABOUT 65 KT. EPSILON CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD RIGHT ALONG THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER... ABOUT 235/13. THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS LONG AS EPSILON PRODUCES SOME DEEP CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY BEND A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND SLOW DOWN AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY BEGINS TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON QUITE AS FAST AS THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SUGGESTING... BUT EVEN THE OFTEN SHEAR-RESISTANT GFDL FORECASTS WEAKENING TO LESS THAN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 36 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON COULD STAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ADVANCES EASTWARD. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY SOLUTION... WHICH IS ONLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE GFDL IN ANTICIPATING A GRADUALLY SLOWING SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF EPSILON UNTIL IT IS SHEARED APART. EPSILON IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE BY 48 HOURS INTO A REMNANT LOW... WHICH SHOULD THEREAFTER BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE PASSING TO ITS NORTH. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 29.1N 37.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 27.8N 38.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 26.4N 39.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 25.3N 40.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.6N 40.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 071741 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.12.2005 HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N 36.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.12.2005 29.6N 36.6W MODERATE 00UTC 08.12.2005 28.6N 37.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.12.2005 27.8N 38.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071741 ** WTIN20 DEMS 071800 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -FANOOS- WARNING NR 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 071200Z NEAR 11.0N 86.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 5 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 071800 11.1N 85.8E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 080000 11.1N 84.9E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 080600 11.3N 84.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 081200 11.8N 83.7E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS NEXT WARNING AT 080600 ** WTIN20 DEMS 071800 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -FANOOS- WARNING NR 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 071200Z NEAR 11.0N 86.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 5 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 071800 11.1N 85.8E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 080000 11.1N 84.9E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 080600 11.3N 84.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 081200 11.8N 83.7E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS NEXT WARNING AT 080600