** WTIO31 PGTW 070900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 11.0N 86.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 86.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 10.5N 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 10.0N 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 9.7N 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 9.6N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 86.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN TO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. DUE TO THE CURRENT AND FORECAST ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INTENSIFICATION AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 070830 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED DEC 07 2005 ...TENACIOUS EPSILON STILL A HURRICANE... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.3 WEST OR ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...29.8 N... 36.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 070831 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0900Z WED DEC 07 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 36.3W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 36.3W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 36.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.7N 37.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.7N 38.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.0N 40.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 36.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTIO31 PGTW 070900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 11.0N 86.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 86.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 10.5N 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 10.0N 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 9.7N 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 9.6N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 86.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN TO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. DUE TO THE CURRENT AND FORECAST ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INTENSIFICATION AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.// ** WTNT74 KNHC 070832 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED DEC 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SAT DEC 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.7N 38.5W 31 X X X 31 26.0N 40.0W 12 4 2 X 18 26.5N 39.5W 17 2 1 X 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 070832 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005 THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....KICKING THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN. ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION OF LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER... THE WEAKENING PROCESS HAS TO BEGIN VERY SOON SINCE STRONG HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SAME TROUGH ARE ALREADY HEADING TOWARD THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...I HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING AT A FAST PACE. NEVERTHERELESS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL EPSILON BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 3 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 29.8N 36.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 28.7N 37.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 27.7N 38.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 39.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTIN01 DEMS 071200 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 12 HRS. FROM 2005 07 12 1200/UTC: 07 DEC 2005 PART-I: THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SE BAY MOVED WEST WARDS AND FURTHER INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND NOW LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 7TH DEC 2005 WITHIN HALF A DEG OF LAT 11.0 DEG N AND LONG 87,5 DEG E ABOUT 800 KMS EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF CHENNAI (.) SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT