** WTSR20 WSSS 061800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT44 KNHC 070237 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005 THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME... EPSILON CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS. HI-RES DATA FROM THE 2037Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME VERY REASONABLE-LOOKING 60 KT VECTORS IN MUCH OF THE EYEWALL...AND ALLOWING FOR THE HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION OF THE INSTRUMENT...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE ARE STILL SOME 65 KT WINDS PRESENT IN THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ALSO STILL 65 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON AND DISRUPT THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING IS SWEEPING EASTWARD...AND VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO OVERTAKE EPSILON IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SHEAR AWAY THE CONVECTION...LEAVING EPSILON AS A REMNANT LOW TO BE ABSORBED WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 215/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE CYCLONE SHEARS OFF...AT WHICH POINT THE MOTION IS LESS CERTAIN. STEERING CURRENTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAKER...SO LITTLE MOTION IS SHOWN JUST PRIOR TO ABSORPTION BY THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 30.3N 35.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 29.1N 36.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 27.5N 37.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 26.5N 38.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 26.0N 38.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 070237 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0300Z WED DEC 07 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 35.3W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 35.3W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 34.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.1N 36.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.5N 38.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N 38.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 35.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 070238 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE DEC 06 2005 ...EPSILON MAINTAINING STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST OR ABOUT 710 MILES...1145 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND A SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT A RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...30.3 N... 35.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 070239 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE DEC 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.5N 37.5W 29 X 1 X 30 26.0N 38.5W 15 3 1 X 19 26.5N 38.4W 19 2 X X 21 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 070558 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.12.2005 HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 30.5N 34.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.12.2005 30.5N 34.8W STRONG 12UTC 07.12.2005 29.4N 35.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.12.2005 28.6N 36.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.12.2005 27.9N 37.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.12.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 070558