** WTNT80 EGRR 061836 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.12.2005 HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 32.7N 34.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.12.2005 32.7N 34.0W MODERATE 00UTC 07.12.2005 31.2N 35.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.12.2005 30.4N 36.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.12.2005 29.4N 37.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.12.2005 29.0N 38.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 061836 ** WTNT80 EGRR 061836 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.12.2005 HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 32.7N 34.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.12.2005 32.7N 34.0W MODERATE 00UTC 07.12.2005 31.2N 35.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.12.2005 30.4N 36.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.12.2005 29.4N 37.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.12.2005 29.0N 38.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 061836 ** WTIO31 PGTW 062100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 11.7N 87.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 87.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 11.7N 86.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 11.5N 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 11.3N 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 11.1N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 87.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEMS STEERING FLOW IS TRANSITIONING FROM THE RIDGE TO THE EAST TO THE MORE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 062100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 11.7N 87.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 87.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 11.7N 86.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 11.5N 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 11.3N 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 11.1N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 87.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEMS STEERING FLOW IS TRANSITIONING FROM THE RIDGE TO THE EAST TO THE MORE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 062040 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 2100Z TUE DEC 06 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 34.5W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 34.5W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 34.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.9N 35.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.4N 37.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.1N 38.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 38.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N 37.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...ASBORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 34.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 062041 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE DEC 06 2005 ...EPSILON HANGS ON AS A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST OR ABOUT 640 MILES...1030 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... 240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.1 N... 34.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 062042 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE DEC 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.4N 37.0W 29 1 X X 30 26.5N 38.7W 11 5 2 1 19 27.1N 38.2W 17 2 1 1 21 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 062056 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005 EPSILON HAS SINCE LATE THIS MORNING BEEN MOVING DECIDEDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210/8 WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND WEST. THIS MOTION IS KEEPING EPSILON BENEATH THE AXIS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... SHELTERING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE FROM WIND SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GRADUALLY ELONGATING... THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED TODAY. THE RAGGED EYE IS STILL CLOSED AND CONVECTION WRAPS ESSENTIALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER WITH TOPS AS COLD AS ABOUT -60C. THE INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... AS DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT... BUT I PREFER TO STAY ON THE HIGH END UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF A TRUE WEAKENING TREND. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EPSILON IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SO EPSILON CANNOT STAY BENEATH IT FOREVER. ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS IS MORE LIKE IT. STRONG WIND SHEAR INCOMING FROM THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD INEVITABLY WEAKEN EPSILON. WHILE THE DECLINE OF EPSILON WILL PROBABLY BE GRADUAL AT BEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR-INDUCED WEAKENING WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN SHIPS AND GFDL IN KEEPING EPSILON A TROPICAL STORM FOR LESS THAN 48 HOURS. ASSUMING THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS... WHAT IS LEFT OF EPSILON IS NOW FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE MODELS TO BECOME INVOLVED IN SOME WAY WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE FRONT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. I HESITATE TO MENTION THAT MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... AFTER ABSORBING EPSILON... TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH OF 30N ON DAY 5 TO THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. HOWEVER THAT SYSTEM DOES OR DOES NOT EVOLVE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON WILL ALREADY HAVE MET ITS DEMISE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 31.1N 34.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 29.9N 35.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 28.4N 37.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 27.1N 38.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 38.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 26.0N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$