** WTSR20 WSSS 060600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT24 KNHC 061439 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 1500Z TUE DEC 06 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 33.8W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 33.8W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 33.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N 34.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.9N 36.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.6N 37.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.4N 39.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 40.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 40.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 33.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 061440 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE DEC 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST FRI DEC 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.9N 36.5W 29 X 1 X 30 26.4N 39.0W 4 8 3 2 17 27.6N 37.9W 14 4 1 1 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 061440 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE DEC 06 2005 ...EPSILON BARELY HOLDING ON TO HURRICANE STRENGTH... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES... 920 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... TO THE WEST FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... 240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...31.9 N... 33.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 061446 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 29 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MARTES 6 DE DICIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EPSILON SE MANTIENE COMO HURACAN... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z ...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EPSILON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 33.8 OESTE O COMO A 570 MILLAS...920 KM...AL SUROESTE DE LAS AZORES. EPSILON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL SUROESTE CON UN LEVE AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH ...120 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS...45 KM AL OESTE DE SU CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...31.9 NORTE... 33.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...SUR A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 987 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 061459 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005 EPSILON APPEARS TO STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT JUST BARELY. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 08Z ESTIMATED WINDS AS STRONG AS 55 KT TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION... SO 65 KT WINDS WERE PROBABLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. THE CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATED A LITTLE UNTIL 12Z WHEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55-65 KT. JUST WHEN I WAS TEMPTED TO REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT... EPSILON STARTED TO AGAIN WRAP SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS OF MODEST DEPTH TIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTER... SO IT REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE. HOWEVER... THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS ELONGATING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD... SO THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE WEAK FOR TOO MUCH LONGER. EPSILON CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 8 KT... ALTHOUGH RECENTLY THERE IS THE HINT THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING. A BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF EPSILON IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. ON THAT TRACK EPSILON WILL STILL BE BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD AS THE OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE RESTRICTED. ONCE EPSILON EMERGES WEST OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A MORE STEADY DECLINE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... CALLING FOR EPSILON TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE TRACK OF THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS A BIT UNCERTAIN SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE IT COULD BE DRAWN BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT... INSTEAD OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SCENARIO OF A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 31.9N 33.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 34.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 28.9N 36.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 27.6N 37.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 26.4N 39.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 40.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 061722 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-12-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) MORNINGS DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLOWLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF 6TH DECEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT. 11.0 DEG N AND LONG. 89.0 E ABOUT 950 KM EAST- SOUTH OF CHENNAI .THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION . BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER BAY ISLANDS ,SOUTHEAST BAY AND ADJOINING AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM (.) ** WTIN20 DEMS 061722 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-12-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) MORNINGS DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLOWLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF 6TH DECEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT. 11.0 DEG N AND LONG. 89.0 E ABOUT 950 KM EAST- SOUTH OF CHENNAI .THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION . BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER BAY ISLANDS ,SOUTHEAST BAY AND ADJOINING AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM (.)