** WTIN20 DEMS 060640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-12-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A DEPRRESSION HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 IST OF 6TH DECEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT. 10.5 DEG. N AND LONG. 89.5 DEG. E ABOUT 1000 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER BAY ISLANDS, SOUTHEAST BAY AND ADJOINING AREA OF CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM (.) ** WTNT24 KNHC 060834 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0900Z TUE DEC 06 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 33.9W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 33.9W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 33.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.1N 34.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.0N 37.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.0N 40.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 41.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 33.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 060834 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE DEC 06 2005 ...EPSILON STILL A HURRICANE... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.9 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES... 845 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...32.9 N... 33.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 060838 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005 I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT. EPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. EPSILON IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 120 HOURS OR SOONER. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL KEEPS EPSILON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS CHANGED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 32.9N 33.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 32.1N 34.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.0N 37.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 060839 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE DEC 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST FRI DEC 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.5N 35.0W 29 1 X X 30 28.0N 37.5W 6 8 2 2 18 29.0N 36.5W 15 3 1 1 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTIO31 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 88.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 88.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 12.2N 87.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.4N 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 12.3N 83.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 12.1N 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 88.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. AN ENVI- RONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE TC 06B TO INTENS- IFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 88.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 88.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 12.2N 87.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.4N 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 12.3N 83.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 12.1N 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 88.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. AN ENVI- RONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE TC 06B TO INTENS- IFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.//