** WTSR20 WSSS 051800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO31 PGTW 060300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421ZDEC2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 89.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 89.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 11.6N 88.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 11.7N 86.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 11.6N 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 11.4N 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 89.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR SLOWLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL OUT- FLOW. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 051421Z DEC 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 051430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 060300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421ZDEC2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 89.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 89.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 11.6N 88.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 11.7N 86.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 11.6N 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 11.4N 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 89.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR SLOWLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL OUT- FLOW. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 051421Z DEC 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 051430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 060245 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0300Z TUE DEC 06 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 33.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 33.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.3N 33.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.7N 34.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.3N 35.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.8N 37.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.0N 39.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.5N 41.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 33.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 060246 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON DEC 05 2005 ...EPSILON BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES... 805 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...33.3 N... 33.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 060246 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON DEC 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST THU DEC 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.7N 34.5W 28 1 X X 29 27.8N 37.0W 2 9 3 2 16 29.3N 35.7W 14 3 2 1 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 060300 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005 WE HAVE SAID THIS BEFORE AT TIMES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS... ONLY TO HAVE EPSILON MAKE A COMEBACK THE FOLLOWING MORNING... BUT EPSILON REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR AS STRONG THIS EVENING AS IT DID THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST SOME CONSOLIDATION AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SIMILAR TO BEFORE... MOSTLY 65 KT WITH ANOTHER AT 77 KT... BUT NOW ALL OF THE T-NUMBERS CORRESPOND TO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT. AFTER MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR MOST OF THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... EPSILON NOW SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN THE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 135/3... AND VERY RECENTLY IT MIGHT NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH AT ALL. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE EPSILON WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD VERY SOON AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS WEST. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE APPARENT TURN IN PROGRESS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONFIDENCE. OCEAN TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT LIKELY COOPERATE IN PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH EPSILON CAN SURVIVE VERY LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOON EPSILON WILL NO LONGER BE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... AND BY ABOUT 36 HOURS IT WILL PROBABLY BEGIN WEAKENING FAIRLY QUICKLY. BY THAT TIME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR EPSILON... TO PIECES IF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ANY INDICATION. EVEN THE GFDL FORECASTS THE REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS NOT PERFORMED WELL DURING EPSILON THUS FAR... IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF MANY SYSTEMS LIKE THIS IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL DATABASE. SHIPS CONTINUES TO INSIST ON STEADY WEAKENING... WHICH STILL MIGHT NOT HAPPEN DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO... BUT SHIPS PROBABLY HAS THE RIGHT IDEA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS ONCE THE SHEAR REALLY KICKS IN. SO EPSILON'S DAYS APPEAR TO BE NUMBERED... WITH THAT NUMBER PROBABLY BEING LESS THAN FIVE... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY HOLDS ON TO A REMANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS. OTHERWISE THE PACE OF WEAKENING IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 33.3N 33.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 32.3N 33.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 30.7N 34.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 29.3N 35.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 27.8N 37.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 39.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 060544 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.12.2005 HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 33.7N 34.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.12.2005 33.7N 34.4W STRONG 12UTC 06.12.2005 32.9N 34.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.12.2005 31.4N 35.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.12.2005 29.8N 37.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.12.2005 28.8N 38.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.12.2005 28.7N 39.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 060544